Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Aug 4, 2014
What AEC executives can do to position their firms for success
Most AEC leadership teams are fastidious about tracking their hit rate–the number of proposals submitted minus the number of proposals won. Here are three alternatives for increasing that percentage. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Aug 1, 2014
Best in healthcare design: AIA selects eight projects for National Healthcare Design Awards
Projects showcase the best of healthcare building design and health design-oriented research.
| Aug 1, 2014
Recession recovery spotty among American cities: WalletHub report
Texas metros show great momentum, but a number of Arizona and California cities are still struggling to recover.
| Jul 30, 2014
Higher ed officials grapple with knotty problems, but construction moves ahead [2014 Giants 300 Report]
University stakeholders face complicated cap-ex stressors, from chronic to impending. Creative approaches to financing, design, and delivery are top-of-mind, according to BD+C's 2014 Giants 300 Report.
Sponsored | | Jul 30, 2014
How one small architecture firm improved cash flow using ArchiOffice
Foreman Seeley Fountain Architecture not only managed to survive the Great Recession, it has positioned itself to thrive in the economy’s recovery.
| Jul 30, 2014
German students design rooftop solar panels that double as housing
Students at the Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences designed a solar panel that can double as living space for the Solar Decathlon Europe.
| Jul 30, 2014
Restaurants, farmers' markets high on urban dwellers' wish list: Sasaki report
Urban dwellers love food-related resources, public spaces, and historic structures—but really hate traffic, lack of parking, and poor public transportation.
| Jul 30, 2014
Nonresidential building activity on the rise for 2015: AIA Forecast
Semiannual Consensus Construction Forecast predicts 4.9% increase this year, 8% next year, with offices and retail facilities leading the charge.
| Jul 29, 2014
Studio Gang Architects, MAD to design George Lucas' museum in Chicago
Star Wars director George Lucas selected Chicago-based Studio Gang Architects and Beijing firm MAD to design his proposed art museum on Chicago’s lakefront.
| Jul 29, 2014
AECOM's buying spree continues: Deal to acquire Hunt Construction Group in the works
The acquisition comes just two weeks after AECOM's $6 billion deal to acquire rival engineering and construction company URS Corp.
