Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Jun 30, 2014
OMA's The Interlace honored as one of the world's most 'community-friendly' high-rises
The 1,040-unit apartment complex in Singapore has won the inaugural Urban Habitat award from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat, which highlights projects that demonstrate a positive contribution to the surrounding environment.
| Jun 30, 2014
Work starts on Jean Nouvel-designed European Patent Office in the Netherlands [slideshow]
With around 80,000 sm and a budget of €205 million self-financed by the EPO, the complex will be one of the biggest office construction sites ever in the Netherlands.
| Jun 30, 2014
Growth of crowdfunding, public-private partnerships among top trends in architecture marketplace
A new report by the American Institute of Architects highlights several emerging trends in the architecture marketplace, including the growth of the P3 project delivery model and designing for health.
| Jun 30, 2014
Report recommends making infrastructure upgrades a cabinet-level priority
The ASCE estimates that $3.6 trillion must be invested by 2020 to make critically needed upgrades and expansions of national infrastructure—and avoid trillions of dollars in lost business sales, exports, disposable income, and GDP.
| Jun 30, 2014
Gen X, not Baby Boomers, spending the most money on homes [infographic]
It turns out that Generation X, who have the highest incomes of the three generations surveyed, are paying the highest home payments and tend to have the largest households.
| Jun 30, 2014
Zaha Hadid's Iraq Parliament complex design marred with controversy
Zaha Hadid's design for the Iraq Parliament was selected, despite placing third in the original RIBA-organized competition.
Sponsored | | Jun 27, 2014
SAFTI FIRST Now Offers GPX Framing with Sunshade Connectors
For the Doolittle Maintenance Facility, SAFTI FIRST provided 60 minute, fire resistive wall openings in the exterior using SuperLite II-XL 60 insulated with low-e glazing in GPX Framing with a clear anodized finish.
| Jun 26, 2014
Glazing offers peace-of-mind for hurricane season
SPONSORED CONTENT As hurricane season kicks into high gear, it reinforces the importance of balancing the aesthetic and daylight enhancements of glazing with the safety requirements to protect people and structures from hurricane-force winds.
| Jun 26, 2014
Plans for Britain’s newest landmark brings in international cooperation
Designers of the London Eye will team up with companies from France, the Netherlands and the United States to construct i360 Brighton, the U.K.'s newest observation tower.
| Jun 25, 2014
The best tall buildings of 2014
Four high-rise buildings from multiple continents have been selected as the best of their region. The best worldwide tall building will be announced November 6.
