Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Jun 2, 2014
Registration is open for 2014 BUILDINGChicago/Greening the Heartland Expo and Conference
BUILDINGChicago is a major conference and trade expo serving architects, engineers, contractors, property owners, real estate developers, government officials and community organizations in the Midwest.
| Jun 2, 2014
Nonresidential construction spending expands in April
Ten of 16 nonresidential construction subsectors posted increases in spending in April, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data.
| Jun 2, 2014
Parking structures group launches LEED-type program for parking garages
The Green Parking Council, an affiliate of the International Parking Institute, has launched the Green Garage Certification program, the parking industry equivalent of LEED certification.
| Jun 2, 2014
SOM unveils plans for Miami transit hub
The elevated station will be a key portal within All Aboard Florida’s rail system, the nation's only privately owned, operated, and financed rail network.
| Jun 1, 2014
Architect license upon graduation? NCARB aims to accelerate licensing process
Incorporating internship and examination requirements into university education, the regulatory organization looks to simplify and shorten the licensing process.
| May 30, 2014
MIT researchers create 'home in a box' transformable wall system for micro apartments
Dubbed CityHome, the system integrates furniture, storage, exercise equipment, lighting, office equipment, and entertainment systems into a compact wall unit.
| May 30, 2014
Riding high: L.A., Chicago working on their version of the High Line elevated park
Cities around the U.S. are taking notice of New York's highly popular High Line elevated park system. Both Chicago and Los Angeles are currently working on High Line-like projects.
| May 30, 2014
Developer will convert Dallas' storied LTV Building into mixed-use residential tower
New Orleans-based HRI Properties recently completed the purchase of one of the most storied buildings in downtown Dallas. The developer will convert the LTV Building into a mixed-use complex, with 171 hotel rooms and 186 luxury apartments.
| May 29, 2014
Turn your pen-and-paper sketches into digital drawings in seconds with this nifty gadget [video]
Funded through Kickstarter, iSketchnote uses a smart pen to instantly digitize hand-written notes and drawings.
| May 29, 2014
7 cost-effective ways to make U.S. infrastructure more resilient
Moving critical elements to higher ground and designing for longer lifespans are just some of the ways cities and governments can make infrastructure more resilient to natural disasters and climate change, writes Richard Cavallaro, President of Skanska USA Civil.
