Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Oct 4, 2013
Nifty video shows planned development of La Sagrada Familia basilica
After 144 years, construction on Gaudi's iconic Barcelona edifice is picking up speed, with a projected end date of 2026.
| Oct 4, 2013
Mack Urban, AECOM acquire six acres for development in LA's South Park district
Mack Urban and AECOM Capital, the investment fund of AECOM Technology Corporation (NYSE: ACM), have acquired six acres of land in downtown Los Angeles’ South Park district located in the central business district (CBD).
| Oct 4, 2013
CRB opens Atlanta office
Georgia’s status as a burgeoning hub for the life sciences industry has fueled CRB’s decision to open an office in Atlanta to better serve its clients in the market. CRB is a leading provider of engineering, design and construction services for customers in the biotech, pharmaceutical and life sciences industries.
| Sep 27, 2013
NYC releases first year-to-year energy performance data on commercial properties
A new report provides information on energy performance of New York City's largest buildings (mostly commercial, multi-family residential). It provides an analysis of 2011 data from city-required energy “benchmarking”—or the tracking and comparison of energy performance—in more than 24,000 buildings that are over 50,000 square feet.
| Sep 27, 2013
ASHRAE/IES publish first standard focused on commissioning process
ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 202, Commissioning Process for Buildings and Systems, identifies the minimum acceptable commissioning process for buildings and systems as described in ASHRAE’s Guideline 0-2005, The Commissioning Process. Standard 202 is ASHRAE’s first standard focused on the commissioning process.
| Sep 26, 2013
6 ways to maximize home-field advantage in sports venue design
Home-field advantage can play a significant role in game outcomes. Here are ways AEC firms can help create the conditions that draw big crowds, energize the home team to perform better, and disrupt visiting players.
| Sep 26, 2013
Literature review affirms benefits of daylighting, architectural glazing
The use of glass as a building material positively impacts learning, healing, productivity and well-being, according to a white paper published by Guardian Industries and the University of Michigan Taubman College of Architecture and Urban Planning. The findings highlight the significant influence daylighting and outside views have on employees, workers, students, consumers and patients.
| Sep 26, 2013
Mobilizing your job site to achieve a paperless project: fact or fiction?
True mobility in the field has rapidly evolved from lock-box kiosks on each floor to laptops on rolling carts to tablets and iPads loaded with drawings sets stored in the cloud. And WiFi-ready job sites have gone from “nice to have” to “must have” status in just a little over a year.
| Sep 26, 2013
Leading in the face of change
As AEC firms navigate toward an uncertain future, the most effective leaders are those who eagerly adapt to change. Here are three attitudes that drive leaders who are of most value to their firms.
| Sep 23, 2013
The art of rewarding employees
What’s the best way to reward those employees who go the extra mile, particularly when it’s not always feasible to give large financial bonuses? According to author and “recognition expert” Dr. Bob Nelson, the most effective employee rewards are also the least expensive.
