Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Aug 3, 2012
Nonres construction spending to increase through 2012, growth projected for 2013
Commercial and industrial projects poised to lead building sectors.
| Jul 31, 2012
Thornton Tomasetti announces four promotions in Chicago office
Promotions in Thornton Tomasetti office key on industy veterans.
| Jul 25, 2012
EwingCole adds healthcare director to D.C. office
Schultz brings over 25 years of proven experience in planning and designing healthcare, medical research, and government medical facilities.
| Jul 25, 2012
Contract awarded for Gaillard Municipal Auditorium renovations in Charleston, S.C.
Seeking LEED Silver certification, the project will begin in August and is slated for completion in December 2014.
| Jul 24, 2012
Boyer joins Thornton Tomasetti as vice president in New York office
Boyer will support Thornton Tomasetti’s Building Performance and Property Loss Consulting practices in the East U.S. region as well as nationally.
| Jul 24, 2012
Dragon Valley Retail at epicenter of Yongsan International Business District
Masterplanned by architect Daniel Libeskind, the Yongsan IBD encompasses ten city blocks and includes a collection of high-rise residences and commercial buildings.
| Jul 23, 2012
Venturi Scott Brown and Associates Becomes VSBA, LLC
After over fifty years as one of the world’s most renowned architects, Bob Venturi has retired from practice, while Denise Scott Brown continues to publish and present her work.
| Jul 23, 2012
Giants 300 Firm Index 2012
An alphabetical index of the Giants 300 AEC firms and their ranking in specific categories.
| Jul 23, 2012
Haynes Whaley announces leadership transition
Pronier has worked in the construction industry for the past 30 years.
| Jul 23, 2012
Missner Group completes construction of Chicago auto dealership
The Missner Group also incorporated numerous sustainable improvements to the property including the implementation of a vegetative roof, and the utilization of permeable pavers for the parking lot.
