Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Apr 27, 2012
APA launches wood design web portal for building and design pros
Design professionals who are members of APA’s Professional Associates are automatically enrolled in the APA Designers Circle program.
| Apr 27, 2012
China Mobile selects Leo A Daly to design three buildings at its new HQ
LEO A DALY, in collaboration with Local Design Institute WDCE, wins competition to design Phase 2, Plot B, of Campus.
| Apr 27, 2012
CSM Group names Comerford as senior project manager
Comerford’s responsibilities include directing and verifying contract compliance by the trade contractors to ensure the owner’s expectations are met in respect to a quality finished project.
| Apr 27, 2012
Hampton Bays Middle School winner of the first National Green Ribbon Schools Program
School was the first LEED-certified public school in the state of New York.
| Apr 26, 2012
USGBC announces inaugural Green Apple Day of Service
On Sept. 29, 2012, participants from all over the world will volunteer to make the schools and campuses in their communities healthier and more sustainable.
| Apr 26, 2012
Gensler's Leiserowitz: Employs holistic philosophy to foster clients' creativity, comfort
Leiserowitz became regional managing principal in Chicago for San Francisco-based architecture and design giant Gensler a little more than a year ago.
| Apr 26, 2012
Blackney Hayes Architects launches new engineering division
The new division, BHH Engineers, will be led by Mark Hershman, PE.
| Apr 26, 2012
Energy efficiency requirements heighten the importance of proper protection for roofing systems
Now more than ever, a well-insulated and well protected roof is critical in new or renovated commercial buildings.
| Apr 26, 2012
Orange County, Fla. high school receives NAIOP “Public Development of the Year” award
School replacement designed by SchenkelShultz Architecture and constructed by Williams Co.
| Apr 25, 2012
Bubble skyscraper design aims to purify drinking water
The Freshwater Skyscraper will address the issue of increasing water scarcity through a process known as transpiration
