Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Nov 29, 2011
Turner Construction establishes partnership with Clark Builders
Partnership advances growth in the Canadian marketplace.
| Nov 29, 2011
AIA launches stalled projects database
To populate this database with both stalled projects and investors interested in financing them, the AIA in the last week initiated a communications campaign to solicit information about stalled projects around the country from its members and allied professionals.
| Nov 28, 2011
Leo A Daly and McCarthy Building complete Casino Del Sol expansion in Tucson, Ariz.
Firms partner with Pascua Yaqui Tribe to bring new $130 million Hotel, Spa & Convention Center to the Tucson, Ariz., community.
| Nov 28, 2011
Armstrong acquires Simplex Ceilings
Simplex will become part of the Armstrong Building Products division.
| Nov 28, 2011
Nauset Construction completes addition for Franciscan Hospital for Children
The $6.5 million fast-track, urban design-build projectwas completed in just over 16 months in a highly sensitive, occupied and operational medical environment.
| Nov 23, 2011
Lord, Aeck & Sargent opens fourth U.S. office, acquiring architecture firm in Austin, Texas
Strategic move offers growth opportunity and strengthens the firm’s historic preservation portfolio.
| Nov 23, 2011
Griffin Electric completes Gwinnett Tech project
Accommodating up to 3,000 students annually beginning this fall, the 78,000-sf, three-story facility consists of thirteen classrooms and twelve high-tech laboratories, in addition to several lecture halls and faculty offices.
| Nov 22, 2011
Corporate America adopting revolutionary technology
The survey also found that by 2015, the standard of square feet allocated per employee is expected to drop from 200 to estimates ranging from 50 to 100 square feet per person dependent upon the industry sector.
| Nov 22, 2011
Report finds that L.A. lags on solar energy, offers policy solutions
Despite robust training programs, L.A. lacks solar jobs; lost opportunity for workers in high-need communities.
| Nov 22, 2011
Saskatchewan's $1.24 billion carbon-capture project
The government of Saskatchewan has approved construction of the Boundary Dam Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage Demonstration Project.
