Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Nov 8, 2011
$11 million business incubator Florida Innovation Hub at the University of Florida completed by Charles Perry Partners, Inc.
The facility houses the UF Office of Technology Licensing, UF Tech Connect, other entities, and more than 30 startup technology tenants.
| Nov 8, 2011
Designer joins Holabird & Root
Clifton has been awarded numerous awards throughout her career, including two AIA Chicago Design Excellence Awards.
| Nov 4, 2011
Mortenson Construction builds its fifth wind facility In Illinois
Shady Oaks Wind Farm is under construction near Compton, Ill.
| Nov 4, 2011
CSI and ICC Evaluation Service agree to reference GreenFormat in ICC-ES Environmental Reports?
ICC-ES currently references CSI's MasterFormat and other formats in all of its evaluation reports. The MOU will add GreenFormat references.
| Nov 4, 2011
McCarthy completes construction of South Region High School No. 2 in Los Angeles
Despite rain delays and scope changes, the $96.7 million high school was completed nearly two-months ahead of schedule.
| Nov 4, 2011
Two Thornton Tomasetti projects win NCSEA’s 2011 Excellence in Structural Engineering Awards
Altra Sede Regione Lombardia and Bank of Oklahoma Center both recognized.
| Nov 3, 2011
GREC Architects announces opening of the Westin Abu Dhabi Golf Resort and Spa
The hotel was designed by GREC and an international team of consultants to enhance the offerings of the Abu Dhabi Golf Club without imposing upon the dramatic landscapes of the elite golf course.
| Nov 3, 2011
Hardin Construction tops out Orlando Embassy Suites
The project began in April 2011 and is expected to open in fall 2012.
| Nov 3, 2011
2012 Pritzker Architecture Prize Ceremony to be held in China
The tradition of moving the event to world sites of architectural significance was established to emphasize that the prize is international, the laureates having been chosen from 16 different nations to date.
| Nov 3, 2011
DMR Architects welcomes two new staff members
Siro Gonzalez joins the staff as junior graduate architect and Megan Byers joins the staff as marketing assistant.
