Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Jan 20, 2011
Worship center design offers warm and welcoming atmosphere
The Worship Place Studio of local firm Ziegler Cooper Architects designed a new 46,000-sf church complex for the Pare de Sufrir parish in Houston.
| Jan 20, 2011
Construction begins on second St. Louis community center
O’Fallon Park Recreation Complex in St. Louis, designed by local architecture/engineering firm KAI Design & Build, will feature an indoor aquatic park with interactive water play features, a lazy river, water slides, laps lanes, and an outdoor spray and multiuse pool.
| Jan 20, 2011
Community college to prepare next-gen Homeland Security personnel
The College of DuPage, Glen Ellyn, Ill., began work on the Homeland Security Education Center, which will prepare future emergency personnel to tackle terrorist attacks and disasters. The $25 million, 61,100-sf building’s centerpiece will be an immersive interior street lab for urban response simulations.
| Jan 19, 2011
Industrial history museum gets new home in steel plant
The National Museum of Industrial History recently renovated the exterior of a 1913 steel plant in Bethlehem, Pa., to house its new 40,000-sf exhibition space. The museum chose VOA Associates, which is headquartered in Chicago, to complete the design for the exhibit’s interior. The exhibit, which has views of five historic blast furnaces, will feature artifacts from the Smithsonian Institution to illustrate early industrial America.
| Jan 19, 2011
Baltimore mixed-use development combines working, living, and shopping
The Shoppes at McHenry Row, a $117 million mixed-use complex developed by 28 Walker Associates for downtown Baltimore, will include 65,000 sf of office space, 250 apartments, and two parking garages. The 48,000 sf of main street retail space currently is 65% occupied, with space for small shops and a restaurant remaining.
| Jan 19, 2011
Biomedical research center in Texas to foster scientific collaboration
The new Health and Biomedical Sciences Center at the University of Houston will facilitate interaction between scientists in a 167,000-sf, six-story research facility. The center will bring together researchers from many of the school’s departments to collaborate on interdisciplinary projects. The facility also will feature an ambulatory surgery center for the College of Optometry, the first of its kind for an optometry school. Boston-based firms Shepley Bulfinch and Bailey Architects designed the project.
| Jan 19, 2011
San Diego casino renovations upgrade gaming and entertainment
The Sycuan Casino in San Diego will get an update with a $27 million, 245,000-sf renovation. Hnedak Bobo Group, Memphis, Tenn., and Cleo Design, Las Vegas, drew design inspiration from the historic culture of the Sycuan tribe and the desert landscape, creating a more open space with better circulation. Renovation highlights include a new “waterless” water entry feature and new sports bar and grill, plus updates to gaming, poker, off-track-betting, retail, and bingo areas. The local office of San Francisco-based Swinerton Builders will provide construction services.
| Jan 19, 2011
Extended stay hotel aims to provide comfort of home
Housing development company Campus Apartments broke ground on a new extended stay hotel that will serve the medical and academic facilities in Philadelphia’s University City, including the University of Pennsylvania and the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. The 11,000-sf hotel will operate under Hilton’s Homewood Suites brand, with 136 suites with full kitchens and dining and work areas. A part of the city’s EnergyWorks loan program, the project aims for LEED with a green roof, low-flow fixtures, and onsite stormwater management. Local firms Alesker & Dundon Architects and GC L.F. Driscoll Co. complete the Building Team.
| Jan 19, 2011
New Fort Hood hospital will replace aging medical center
The Army Corps of Engineers selected London-based Balfour Beatty and St. Louis-based McCarthy to provide design-build services for the Fort Hood Replacement Hospital in Texas, a $503 million, 944,000-sf complex partially funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The firm plans to use BIM for the project, which will include outpatient clinics, an ambulance garage, a central utility plant, and three parking structures. Texas firms HKS Architects and Wingler & Sharp will participate as design partners. The project seeks LEED Gold.
| Jan 19, 2011
Museum design integrates Greek history and architecture
Construction is under way in Chicago on the National Hellenic Museum, the nation’s first museum devoted to Greek history and culture. RTKL designed the 40,000-sf limestone and glass building to include such historic references as the covered walkway of classical architecture and the natural wood accents of Byzantine monasteries. The museum will include a research library and oral history center, plus a 3,600-sf rooftop terrace featuring three gardens. The project seeks LEED Silver.
