Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Healthcare Facilities | Jul 19, 2023
World’s first prefab operating room with fully automated disinfection technology opens in New York
The first prefabricated operating room in the world with fully automated disinfection technology opened recently at the University of Rochester Medicine Orthopedics Surgery Center in Henrietta, N.Y. The facility, developed in a former Sears store, features a system designed by Synergy Med, called Clean Cube, that had never been applied to an operating space before. The components of the Clean Cube operating room were custom premanufactured and then shipped to the site to be assembled.
Performing Arts Centers | Jul 18, 2023
Perelman Performing Arts Center will soon open at Ground Zero
In September, New York City will open a new performing arts center in Lower Manhattan, two decades after the master plan for Ground Zero called for a cultural component there. At a cost of $500 million, including $130 million donated by former mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, the Perelman Performing Arts Center (dubbed PAC NYC) is a 138-foot-tall cube-shaped building that glows at night.
Codes and Standards | Jul 17, 2023
Outdated federal rainfall analysis impacting infrastructure projects, flood insurance
Severe rainstorms, sometimes described as “atmospheric rivers” or “torrential thunderstorms,” are making the concept of a “1-in-100-year flood event” obsolete, according to a report from First Street Foundation, an organization focused on weather risk research.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 13, 2023
Walkable neighborhoods encourage stronger sense of community
Adults who live in walkable neighborhoods are more likely to interact with their neighbors and have a stronger sense of community than people who live in car-dependent communities, according to a report by the Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science at University of California San Diego.
Sustainability | Jul 13, 2023
Deep green retrofits: Updating old buildings to new sustainability standards
HOK’s David Weatherhead and Atenor’s Eoin Conroy discuss the challenges and opportunities of refurbishing old buildings to meet modern-day sustainability standards.
Contractors | Jul 13, 2023
Construction input prices remain unchanged in June, inflation slowing
Construction input prices remained unchanged in June compared to the previous month, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data released today. Nonresidential construction input prices were also unchanged for the month.
Government Buildings | Jul 13, 2023
The recently opened U.S. Embassy in Ankara reflects U.S. values while honoring Turkish architecture
The U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Overseas Buildings Operations (OBO) has recently opened the U.S. Embassy in Ankara, Turkey. The design by Ennead Architects aims to balance transparency and openness with security, according to a press statement. The design also seeks both to honor Turkey’s architectural traditions and to meet OBO’s goals of sustainability, resiliency, and stewardship.
Affordable Housing | Jul 12, 2023
Navigating homelessness with modular building solutions
San Francisco-based architect Chuck Bloszies, FAIA, SE, LEED AP, discusses his firm's designs for Navigation Centers, temporary housing for the homeless in northern California.
Sponsored | Fire and Life Safety | Jul 12, 2023
Fire safety considerations for cantilevered buildings [AIA course]
Bold cantilevered designs are prevalent today, as developers and architects strive to maximize space, views, and natural light in buildings. Cantilevered structures, however, present a host of challenges for building teams, according to José R. Rivera, PE, Associate Principal and Director of Plumbing and Fire Protection with Lilker.
Building Owners | Jul 12, 2023
Building movement: When is it a problem?
As buildings age, their structural conditions can deteriorate, causing damage and safety concerns. In order to mitigate this, it’s important to engage in the regular inspection and condition assessment of buildings for diagnosis.
