The nonresidential building market was hamstrung by weather-related delays during the first part of the 2014, but conditions improved dramatically throughout the rest of the year to finish with greater than anticipated spending levels. The commercial construction sector is now looking at double-digit increases in 2015, led by vigorous levels of demand for hotels and office buildings.
The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 7.7% increase in 2015, with next year’s projection nudging up to 8.2%.
VIDEO: Q1 2015 Economic Forecast
“This is the first time since the Great Recession that every major building category is projected to see increases in spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But by far, the most significant driver that will fuel greater expansion in the marketplace is the revival in the institutional sector, especially with growing demand for new healthcare and education facilities, which alone traditionally account for a third of spending on new building construction.”
Baker continued, “The overall construction industry appears to be on very solid ground for the next two years. That said, uncertainties in international economies, potential labor shortages, lower energy costs, rising interest rates and construction costs all are factors that we will be watching closely to see how they may adversely impact the marketplace.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts
Overall nonresidential building
2015: 7.7%
2016: 8.2%
Commercial/industrial
2015: 11.8%
2016: 10.4%
Hotels
2015: 15.3%
2016: 10.4%
Office buildings
2015: 12.9%
2016: 11.5%
Industrial facilities
2015: 10.5%
2016: 10.1%
Retail
2015: 10.1%
2016: 9.0%
Institutional
2015: 5.0%
2016: 5.4%
Amusement/recreation
2015: 9.1%
2016: 5.3%
Education
2015: 4.7%
2016: 5.2%
Healthcare facilities
2015: 4.7%
2016: 6.2%
Public safety
2015: 1.7%
2016: 3.6%
Religious
2015: 1.2%
2016: 3.6%
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 16 years.
Related Stories
K-12 Schools | Feb 25, 2015
Polish architect designs modular ‘kids city’ kindergarten using shipping container frames
Forget the retrofit of a shipping container into a building for one moment. Designboom showcases the plans of Polish architect Adam Wiercinski to use just the recycled frames of containers to construct a “kids city.”
Cultural Facilities | Feb 25, 2015
Bjarke Ingels designs geodesic dome for energy production, community use
A new building in Uppsala, Sweden, will serve as a power plant during the winter and a venue for shows, festivals, and music events during the warm months.
Cultural Facilities | Feb 25, 2015
Edmonton considering 'freezeway' to embrace winter
If the new Edmonton Freezeway is constructed, residents will have an 11-km course that winds through the city and allows them to skate to work, school, and other city activities.
Sponsored | Building Team | Feb 24, 2015
What your employees really want
Here are key aspects of a job that keep employees happy
Building Team | Feb 24, 2015
Call for entries: 2015 Giants 300 survey
The annual Giants 300 Report ranks the top AEC firms in commercial construction, by revenue.
| Feb 23, 2015
Where are the iconic green buildings?
What does a green building look like? How would you know one if you saw one? Maybe a trivial question to some, but of great interest to architects, designers, and other members of the Building Team as the rapid evolution of sustainable buildings continues apace.
Engineers | Feb 20, 2015
PwC reports record year for M&A activity in engineering and construction
Worldwide engineering and construction industries closed 218 M&A deals in 2014 worth more than $172 billion, according to a PwC report.
Building Materials | Feb 19, 2015
Prices for construction materials fall in January, following plummet of oil prices
The decline in oil and petroleum prices finally showed up in the produce price index data, according to ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu.
Sponsored | Building Team | Feb 17, 2015
Why diversity matters
Companies in the top quartile for gender or racial and ethnic diversity are more likely to have financial returns above their national industry medians.
Sponsored | Modular Building | Feb 17, 2015
When lava flow in Hawaii threatens a public school district, officials turn to modular
Hawaii Modular Space, a Williams Scotsman company, designed temporary classroom space for the Pahoa and Keeau schools that would become displaced due to ongoing lava flow in Pahoa, Hawaii.
