Some climate models underestimate risk of future floods

Commonly used climate models may be significantly underestimating the risk of floods this century, according to a new study by Yale researchers.

Accurately pinpointing the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall hinges not only on tracking rainfall, but also on the way researchers model climate change, the study says. Previous studies averaged all the available climate models in order to figure out how much rain the planet will get in coming decades, but the Yale researchers only used the group of models that predict that climate change will result in an increase in precipitation efficiency—how much of a falling raindrop reevaporates into the atmosphere before it hits Earth’s surface.

They excluded models that forecast a decrease, since scientific observations over the past two decades indicate that climate change is yielding an increase in precipitation efficiency. The results show that it is possible that there will be as much as a twofold increase in the volume of extreme rainfall in the 21st century compared to what previous studies estimated.

Lawmakers could help prepare for extreme rainfall via fund initiatives that harden home infrastructure, such as rooftops, and improve drainage systems.

New York City has two very large buildings dedicated to answering the 911 calls of its five boroughs. With more than 11 million emergency calls annually, it makes perfect sense. The second of these buildings, the Public Safety Answering Center II (PSAC II) is located on a nine-acre parcel of land in the Bronx. It’s an imposing 450,000 square-foot structure—a 240-foot-wide by 240-foot-tall cube. The gleaming aluminum cube risesthe equivalent of 24 stories from behind a grassy berm, projecting the unlikely impression that it might actually be floating. Like most visually striking structures, the building has drawn as much scorn as it has admiration.