“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Apr 2, 2012
TGP launches new fire-rated glazing website
Website offers online continuing education courses registered with the American Institute of Architects (AIA), BIM 3D models, and rapid-response quoting, among other support tools.
| Apr 2, 2012
Gilbane honored for sustainability efforts in Indianapolis
Emmitt J. Bean Federal Center project team for their role in advancing sustainability in the city.
| Apr 2, 2012
Mitsubishi unveils ultra-high-speed elevator for Shanghai skyscraper
The operation of the elevator is scheduled to begin in 2014.
| Apr 2, 2012
Sachse Construction helps complete Salt Lake City’s City Creek Center
Sachse was hired to complete store build-outs at City Creek Center.
| Apr 2, 2012
Culver joins Sasaki as managing director
Culver will work closely with Sasaki firm leaders on issues of strategy, marketing, and business development.
| Apr 2, 2012
EB-5 investment funds new Miramar, Fla. business complex
Riviera Point Holdings breaks ground on $17 million office center.
| Mar 30, 2012
New windows and doors revitalize older buildings
With their improved aesthetics, energy efficiency, and durability, replacement windows and doors can add significant value to a renovation project.
| Mar 30, 2012
18 handy tablet apps for AEC professionals
Check out these helpful apps for everyday design and construction tasks. Our favorite: MagicPlan, which uses GPS to help you measure and draw a floor plan of any room.
| Mar 29, 2012
U.K.’s Manchester Airport tower constructed in nine days
Time-lapse video shows construction workers on the jobsite for 222 continuous hours.
| Mar 29, 2012
Roller shade operating system wins IF Product Design Award
Design experts in the iF jury recognized the engineering invested in the RB 500 Roller Shade, including a metal clutch with a patented construction, a durable zamac housing with polished finish, and a chain drive unit that excels in maximum operating comfort.
