They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| May 16, 2011
USGBC and AIA unveil report for greening K-12 schools
The U.S. Green Building Council and the American Institute of Architects unveiled "Local Leaders in Sustainability: A Special Report from Sundance," which outlines a five-point national action plan that mayors and local leaders can use as a framework to develop and implement green schools initiatives.
| May 16, 2011
Dassault Systèmes to distribute Gehry Technologies’ digital project
Dassault Systèmes and Gehry Technologies announced that Gehry Technologies’ Digital Project products will be integrated into the Dassault Systèmes’ portfolio and distributed through Dassault Systèmes. Digital Project is a suite of 3D BIM applications created by Gehry Technologies using Dassault Systèmes’ CATIA as a core modeling engine.
| May 11, 2011
DOE releases guide for 50% more energy-efficient office buildings
The U.S. Department of Energy today announced the release of the first in a new series of Advanced Energy Design Guides to aid in the design of highly energy efficient office buildings. The 50% AEDG series will provide a practical approach to commercial buildings designed to achieve 50% energy savings compared to the commercial building energy code used in many areas of the country.
| May 10, 2011
Google hires Ingenhoven Architects to design new Mountain View office
The current Googleplex is straining at the seams and yet the company is preparing its biggest hiring surge ever, so Google decided now’s the time to build its own office space—a first for the Internet giant. The company hired Ingenhoven Architects, a German firm that specializes in sustainable architecture, to create plans for what could be a 600,000-sf office.
| May 10, 2011
Solar installations on multifamily rooftops aid social change
The Los Angeles Business Council's study on the feasibility of installing solar panels on the city’s multifamily buildings shows there's tremendous rooftop capacity, and that a significant portion of that rooftop capacity comes from buildings in economically depressed neighborhoods. Solar installations could therefore be used to create jobs, lower utility costs, and improve conditions for residents in these neighborhood.
| May 10, 2011
Dinner is now served…atop the Lincoln Memorial?
Take a look at the temporary restaurant sitting atop Brussels’ historic Arc de Triomphe-Triomfboog. The Cube, by Electrolux, offers 18 diners a spectacular view of the Parc du Cinquantenair, and is one of two structures traveling across Europe, making stops at famous landmarks in Belgium, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden, and Russia. What do you think about one of these 60-tonne structures being placed on a U.S. memorial?
| May 6, 2011
Ellerbe Becket now operating as AECOM
*/ The architecture, interiors and engineering firm Ellerbe Becket, which joined AECOM in 2009, has fully transitioned to operating as AECOM as of May 2, 2011.
| May 2, 2011
URS acquires Apptis Holdings, a federal IT service provider
SAN FRANCISCO, CA and CHANTILLY, VA– April 28, 2011 – URS Corporation and Apptis Holdings, Inc., a leading provider of information technology and communications services to the federal government, announced that they have signed a definitive agreement under which URS will acquire Apptis.
| May 2, 2011
Perkins+Will merges with Vermeulen Hind Architects, offically launches Perkins+Will Canada
Ottawa and Hamilton-based Vermeulen Hind Architects, one of Canada’s leading healthcare architectural firms, has merged with Perkins+Will. Vermeulen Hind joins Toronto-based Shore Tilbe Perkins+Will and Vancouver-based Busby Perkins+Will to create Perkins+Will Canada. The combination marks the official launch of Perkins+Will Canada, a merge that will establish the firm as among the pre-eminent interdisciplinary design practices in Canada.
