November 2016 will most certainly go down in the books as one of the most memorable months in recent decades. If the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series in dramatic Game 7 fashion wasn’t enough to shock you, then the events that unfolded during the late evening on Nov. 8 likely were.
Regardless of which side of the aisle you stand on, election night was a jaw-dropping moment. Donald Trump’s own campaign advisors, along with some of his supporters and pundits, admitted to being astonished as the story unfolded on election night.
On the morning of Election Day, the New York Times set the odds of Trump winning at a scant 15%. “Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 37-yard field goal,” they wrote. Well, Hillary missed a chip shot, and the NYT editors—like many in the media—were left with egg on their face for grossly underestimating Trump’s chances. It was a Dewey Defeats Truman moment.
What does a Trump-led America (coupled with a GOP-controlled Congress) mean for the AEC industry? As with any election, it’s a mixed bag of the good, the bad, and the unknown.
The good: Trump proposes spending up- wards of $1 trillion to rebuild the nation’s roads, bridges, tunnels, water systems, and airports as part of a massive infrastructure bill. While not primarily buildings work, this level of investment would most certainly create real estate development opportunities and needs—whether directly or indirectly—for the AEC community. Infrastructure investment is one of the few pressing issues that garners almost universal support among political leaders in Washington. The trillion-dollar question is, How do we pay for it? Trump’s answer: public-private partnerships and other creative financing methods.
The bad: In his 100-day action plan, Trump outlines several measures that could hit AEC firms in the pocketbook in the near term. On the list is Obamacare, which Trump hopes to repeal and replace with traditional HSA and health insurance initiatives. This move could cause healthcare operators to take a “let’s wait and see” approach to real estate investments, much like they did during the implementation of Obamacare. Having healthcare owners hit the pause button for the second time in six years could severely impact AEC rms. At $87 billion in annual construction spending, healthcare is the largest sector in the nonresidential market.
The unknown: Given the GOP’s contentious relationship with Trump during the election cycle, we could be in for four more years of gridlock in Washington. It’s too early to predict how his ideas will be received by the house and senate.
A recent survey of 306 BD+C readers paints a picture of cautious optimism for AEC firms. Half of the respondents (50.3%) predict that 2017 will be an “excellent” or “very good” business year for their firm. More than half (55.3%) expect their firm’s revenue to increase next year; just 11.5% are forecasting a drop.
On the flip side, when asked to identify their biggest concerns heading into 2017, nearly a third (31.7%) cited “business impacts from the Presidential election” as a top-three burden— only behind “general economic conditions” and “competition from other firms.”
As we head toward Inauguration Day, all we can do is hope the President-elect delivers on much more good than bad.
Related Stories
| Nov 11, 2012
Greenbuild 2012 Report: Higher Education
More and more colleges and universities see sustainainably designed buildings as a given
| Nov 6, 2012
Uponor files patent infringement suit against Sioux Chief Manufacturing
Uponor is seeking damages and an injunction to prevent Sioux Chief from selling the PowerPEX F1960 Ring with Stop, which it believes violates Uponor’s patent.
| Nov 5, 2012
Brasfield & Gorrie awarded new steel processing facility for Kloeckner Metals
The construction will take place on a 16-acre greenfield site at ThyssenKrupp Industrial Park in Calvert.
| Oct 22, 2012
Tishman appoints Cettina COO of Americas
Tishman Construction Corp. has promoted Ed Cettina to Chief Operation Officer, Americas, for both Tishman and the overall AECOM construction services practice.
| Oct 11, 2012
Hank Adams Named to Lead HDR’s Healthcare Program
With more than 25 years of experience, HDR vice president is tapped to lead firm's healthcare projects.
| Oct 10, 2012
Foster + Partners to Design New 425 Park Avenue Tower
Conceptual designs submitted by Foster, Hadid, Koolhaas and Rogers to be on exhibit during Municipal Art Society’s Annual Symposium
| Oct 9, 2012
AIA Survey shows 40% cut for firms
Total construction spending, which exceeded $1 trillion in 2008, dropped to under $800 million in 2011.
| Oct 9, 2012
AIA billings index sounds a positive note
The so-called new projects index was at a relatively healthy 57.2, up from 56.3 the previous month.
| Oct 5, 2012
2012 Reconstruction Award Special Recognition: Joplin Interim High School, Joplin, Mo.
At 5:41 p.m. CDT on Sunday, May 22, 2011, an EF5 tornado touched down in Joplin, Mo. In the next 31 minutes, the mile-wide, multiple-vortex tornado, with winds up to 250 mph, destroyed two thousand buildings, including Joplin High and nine other schools.
| Oct 5, 2012
2012 Reconstruction Award Bronze Winner: Pomeroy Senior Apartments, Chicago, Ill.
The entire interior of the building was renovated, from the first floor lobby and common areas, to the rooftop spaces. The number of living units was reduced from 120 to 104 to allow for more space per unit and comply with current accessibility requirements.
