Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
| Dec 19, 2011
Davis Construction breaks ground on new NIAID property
The new offices will total 490,998 square feet in a 10-story building with two wings of 25,000 square feet each.
| Dec 14, 2011
Belfer Research Building tops out in New York
Hundreds of construction trades people celebrate reaching the top of concrete structure for facility that will accelerate treatments and cures at world-renowned institution.
| Dec 13, 2011
Lutron’s Commercial Experience Center awarded LEED Gold
LEED certification of the Lutron facility was based on a number of green design and construction features that positively impact the project itself and the broader community. These features include: optimization of energy performance through the use of lighting power, lighting controls and HVAC, plus the use of daylight.
| Dec 12, 2011
AIA Chicago announces Skidmore, Owings & Merrill as 2011 Firm of the Year
SOM has been a leader in the research and development of specialized technologies, new processes and innovative ideas, many of which have had a palpable and lasting impact on the design profession and the physical environment.
| Dec 12, 2011
CRSI design awards deadline extended to December 31
The final deadline is extended until December 31st, with judging shortly thereafter at the World of Concrete.
| Dec 12, 2011
Mojo Stumer takes top honors at AIA Long Island Design Awards
Firm's TriBeCa Loft wins "Archi" for interior design.
| Dec 10, 2011
10 Great Solutions
The editors of Building Design+Construction present 10 “Great Solutions” that highlight innovative technology and products that can be used to address some of the many problems Building Teams face in their day-to-day work. Readers are encouraged to submit entries for Great Solutions; if we use yours, you’ll receive a $25 gift certificate. Look for more Great Solutions in 2012 at: www.bdcnetwork.com/greatsolutions/2012.
| Dec 10, 2011
Energy performance starts at the building envelope
Rainscreen system installed at the west building expansion of the University of Arizona’s Meinel Optical Sciences Center in Tucson, with its folded glass wall and copper-paneled, breathable cladding over precast concrete.
| Dec 10, 2011
Turning Balconies Outside In
Operable glass balcony glazing systems provide solution to increase usable space in residential and commercial structures.
| Dec 10, 2011
BIM tools to make your project easier to manage
Two innovations—program manager Gafcon’s SharePoint360 project management platform and a new BIM “wall creator” add-on developed by ClarkDietrich Building Systems for use with the Revit BIM platform and construction consultant—show how fabricators and owner’s reps are stepping in to fill the gaps between construction and design that can typically be exposed by working with a 3D model.
