According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
Building Team Awards | May 25, 2016
New health center campus provides affordable care for thousands of Northern Californians
The 38,000-sf, two-level John & Susan Sobrato Campus in Palo Alto is expected to serve 25,000 patients a year by the end of the decade.
Building Team Awards | May 24, 2016
Los Angeles bus depot squeezes the most from a tight site
The Building Team for the MTA Division 13 Bus Operations and Maintenance Facility fit 12 acres’ worth of programming in a multi-level structure on a 4.8-acre site.
Building Team Awards | May 23, 2016
'Greenest ballpark' proves a winner for St. Paul Saints
Solar arrays, a public art courtyard, and a picnic-friendly “park within a park" make the 7,210-seat CHS Field the first ballpark to meet Minnesota sustainable building standards.
Building Team Awards | May 19, 2016
Chinatown library unites and serves two emerging Chicago neighborhoods
The 16,000-sf, pebble-shaped Chinatown Branch Library was built at the intersection of new and old Chinatown neighborhoods. The goal is for the building to unite the communities and serve as a catalyst for the developing area.
Building Team Awards | May 19, 2016
NYC subway station lights the way for 300,000 riders a day
Fulton Center, which handles 85% of the riders coming to Lower Manhattan, is like no other station in the city’s vast underground transit web—and that’s a good thing.
Market Data | May 17, 2016
Modest growth for AIA’s Architecture Billings Index in April
The American Institute of Architects reported the April ABI score was 50.6, down from the mark of 51.9 in the previous month. This score still reflects an increase in design services.
Retail Centers | May 10, 2016
5 factors guiding restaurant design
Restaurants are more than just places to eat. They are comprising town centers and playing into the future of brick-and-mortar retail.
AEC Tech | May 9, 2016
Is the nation’s grand tech boom really an innovation funk?
Despite popular belief, the country is not in a great age of technological and digital innovation, at least when compared to the last great innovation era (1870-1970).
Big Data | May 5, 2016
Demand for data integration technologies for buildings is expected to soar over the next decade
A Navigant Research report takes a deeper dive to examine where demand will be strongest by region and building type.
Urban Planning | May 4, 2016
Brookings report details how different industries innovate
In the new report, “How Firms Learn: Industry Specific Strategies for Urban Economies,” Brookings' Scott Andes examines how manufacturing and software services firms develop new products, processes, and ideas.
