According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
Contractors | Nov 12, 2015
Construction will outpace worldwide GDP growth over the next 15 years
Three countries—the United States, China, and India—will account for nearly three-fifths of worldwide construction growth over the next 15 years, according to a new report from Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics.
Contractors | Nov 5, 2015
Budget bill provision raises OSHA fines for first time in 25 years
Inflation-adjusted penalty hikes could go up as much as 80%.
Contractors | Nov 3, 2015
ABC, AIA & NAHB: Residential, nonresidential construction growth expected in 2016
Economists from the three trade associations discussed several indicators for sector performance in a joint web conference.
Contractors | Nov 2, 2015
ABC: September's nonresidential spending slip no cause for concern
Despite the monthly drop, September's year-over-year increase is largest in seven years. Seven of 16 nonresidential construction sectors saw spending increases.
Contractors | Oct 30, 2015
ABC: Economic growth stronger than headline GDP figure suggests
GDP expanded 1.5% during the third quarter while nonresidential fixed investment expanded by 2.1% during that period.
BIM and Information Technology | Oct 29, 2015
MIT develops ‘river of 3D pixels’ to assemble objects
The Kinetic Blocks can manipulate objects into shapes without human interference.
Contractors | Oct 28, 2015
Office construction costs highest in New York City, San Francisco, says CBRE
A CBRE report found that New York’s construction costs are more than $500 per sf. San Francisco isn’t too far behind.
Contractors | Oct 16, 2015
ABC report: Confidence rises during the first half of the year
In the first half, sales expectations and profit margin expectations rose while staffing level intentions dipped slightly.
Contractors | Oct 7, 2015
Construction equipment continues to be vulnerable to theft
Poor security and lax inventory control make jobsites sitting ducks for robbers, according to crime-data analysis by LoJack.
Office Buildings | Oct 5, 2015
Renderings revealed for Apple's second 'spaceship': a curvy, lush office complex in Sunnyvale
The project has been dubbed as another “spaceship,” referencing the nickname for the loop-shaped Apple Campus under construction in Cupertino.
