According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
Airports | Aug 31, 2015
Experts discuss how airports can manage growth
In February 2015, engineering giant Arup conducted a “salon” in San Francisco on the future of aviation. This report provides an insight into their key findings.
Healthcare Facilities | Aug 28, 2015
Hospital construction/renovation guidelines promote sound control
The newly revised guidelines from the Facilities Guidelines Institute touch on six factors that affect a hospital’s soundscape.
Healthcare Facilities | Aug 28, 2015
7 (more) steps toward a quieter hospital
Every hospital has its own “culture” of loudness and quiet. Jacobs’ Chris Kay offers steps to a therapeutic auditory environment.
Healthcare Facilities | Aug 28, 2015
Shhh!!! 6 ways to keep the noise down in new and existing hospitals
There’s a ‘decibel war’ going on in the nation’s hospitals. Progressive Building Teams are leading the charge to give patients quieter healing environments.
Mixed-Use | Aug 26, 2015
Innovation districts + tech clusters: How the ‘open innovation’ era is revitalizing urban cores
In the race for highly coveted tech companies and startups, cities, institutions, and developers are teaming to form innovation hot pockets.
Contractors | Aug 19, 2015
FMI's Nonresidential Construction Index Report: Recovery continues despite slow down
The Q3 NRCI dropped to 63.6 from the previous reading of 64.9 in Q2, painting a mixed picture of the state of the nonresidential construction sector.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
GOVERNMENT SECTOR GIANTS: Public sector spending even more cautiously on buildings
AEC firms that do government work say their public-sector clients have been going smaller to save money on construction projects, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
K-12 SCHOOL SECTOR GIANTS: To succeed, school design must replicate real-world environments
Whether new or reconstructed, schools must meet new demands that emanate from the real world and rapidly adapt to different instructional and learning modes, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
MULTIFAMILY AEC GIANTS: Slowdown prompts developers to ask: Will the luxury rentals boom hold?
For the last three years, rental apartments have occupied the hot corner in residential construction, as younger people gravitated toward renting to be closer to urban centers and jobs. But at around 360,000 annual starts, multifamily might be peaking, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
UNIVERSITY SECTOR GIANTS: Collaboration, creativity, technology—hallmarks of today’s campus facilities
At a time when competition for the cream of the student/faculty crop is intensifying, colleges and universities must recognize that students and parents are coming to expect an education environment that foments collaboration, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
