A bruising presidential election and a tightening labor market are prompting reservations about future spending for nonresidential building, even as the construction industry’s performance has staved off most gloom-and-doom scenarios.
Total spending for nonresidential building was up nearly 11%, to $103.3 billion, in the first quarter. The Census Bureau estimated that the value of nonresidential building put in place rose 3.1% in April compared to April 2015, to an annualized $461.8 billion, spurred by robust building of hotels, offices, and entertainment/amusement centers.
TOP CONTRACTOR GIANTS
2015 GC Revenue ($)
1. Turner Construction Co. $10,566,643,175
2. Whiting-Turner Contracting Co. $5,530,003,229
3. Fluor Corp. $5,048,920,000
4. Skanska USA $4,887,571,264
5. Gilbane Building Co. $4,406,057,000
6. PCL Construction Enterprises $4,344,294,460
7. Balfour Beatty US $3,955,770,283
8. Structure Tone $3,865,600,000
9. AECOM $3,772,057,000
10. DPR Construction $3,085,975,000
TOP CM/PM GIANTS
2015 CM/PM Revenue ($)
1. Hill International $503,000,000
2. Jacobs $460,670,000
3. JLL $328,233,760
4. Hunter Roberts Construction Group $259,724,915
5. AECOM $256,933,000
6. Burns & McDonnell $255,390,861
7. WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff $173,063,000
8. Turner Construction Co. $161,788,824
9. Sachse Construction $109,836,555
10. Cumming $96,538,000
CONSTRUCTION GIANTS SPONSORED BY:
“The construction sector is likely to be the economic tailwind” in the U.S., predicts Kermit Baker, PhD, Chief Economist with the American Institute of Architects.
Baker and chief economists Ken Simonson of the Associated General Contractors of America and Alex Carrick of CMD Construction Data expect nonresidential construction spending to increase 9–10% this year and 4–8% in 2017. More than one-third of AGC’s membership expects there will be more work to bid on this year than last year, particularly in the retail, warehouse, lodging, and office sectors.
The trio of economists raised a number of red flags about factors that could slow construction spending. “Market fundamentals remain positive, but are fading in most sectors,” said Baker.
Carrick and Simonson are less sanguine about spending for education-related projects, mainly because growth figures for 4- to 17-year-olds and 18- to 26-year-olds are either flat lining or receding.
Simonson noted that recent legislation passed by Congress extends tax credits and allows for more federal dollars to flow into construction. But the federal government is reducing its overall physical footprint, so it’s more likely to renovate existing buildings than build new.
Multifamily housing, which has been one of the construction industry’s high-powered turbines—it’s up 30% since 2009, according to Baker—is expected to taper off to a still-strong but normalized range of 410,000–440,000 units per year.
Simonson also pointed out that the U.S. population has been growing at less than 1% annually, and that several states have lost population. Immigration, which has pushed population growth over the past few decades, has lost traction. The factors could lead to less mobility and less demand for new construction.
HELLO!!! ARE THERE ANY CARPENTERS OUT THERE?
Another area of concern for contractors is finding the skilled labor they need to complete projects they bid for.
The country’s unemployment rate stood at 4.7% in May, and was down in 269 of 387 metros, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates. Carrick noted that the labor participation rate (the labor force as a percentage of the working-age population) fell to 62.5% in Q1/2016, from 67% in 2001.
Citing a recent survey of 1,300 AGC-member companies, Simonson said that 79% are having difficulty finding hourly craft professionals, and 73% struggle to hire carpenters. More than half (56%) said they have raised their base pay for hourly workers; 29% provide incentives and bonuses.
None of the economists anticipates a recession rearing its head any time soon. “I think there’s too much negative talk about the economy,” said Carrick. What does worry him are the sluggish energy sector and economic slowdowns outside the U.S., specifically China.
As for the presidential race, AGC’s Simonson lamented that it might not make much difference who wins. “I expect continued gridlock,” he says. “Uncertainty will cause companies to hold back on major investments.”
More on the 2016 Construction Giants: BD+C's John Caulfield examines how Turner uses to design-build, P3, Lean practices, and engineering services.
RETURN TO THE GIANTS 300 LANDING PAGE
Related Stories
| Sep 1, 2022
The University of Iowa opens the new Stanley Museum of Art, a public museum for both discovering and teaching art
The University of Iowa recently completed its new Stanley Museum of Art, a public teaching museum designed by BNIM.
| Aug 31, 2022
A mixed-use development in Salt Lake City provides 126 micro units with mountain views
In Salt Lake City, a new 130,000-square-foot development called Mya and The Shop SLC, designed by EskewDumezRipple, combines housing with coworking space, retail, and amenities, as well as a landscaped exterior for both residents and the public.
Mass Timber | Aug 30, 2022
Mass timber construction in 2022: From fringe to mainstream
Two Timberlab executives discuss the market for mass timber construction and their company's marketing and manufacturing strategies. Sam Dicke, Business Development Manager, and Erica Spiritos, Director of Preconstruction, Timberlab, speak with BD+C's John Caulfield.
Giants 400 | Aug 29, 2022
Top 50 Senior Living Facility Contractors + CM Firms for 2022
Whiting-Turner, Ryan Companies US, W.E. O'Neil Construction, and KBE Building Corp. top the ranking of the nation's largest senior living facility contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Aug 29, 2022
Top 40 Student Housing Facility Contractors + CM Firms for 2022
J.H. Findorff & Son, PCL Construction Enterprises, Juneau Construction, and Sundt Construction top the ranking of the nation's largest student housing facility contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
| Aug 29, 2022
Montana becomes first U.S. state to approve 3D printing in construction
Montana is the first U.S. state to give broad regulatory approval for 3D printing in building construction.
| Aug 26, 2022
Idaho Building Code Board considers gutting large part of state energy code
Idaho Building Code Board considers gutting large part of state energy code.
Giants 400 | Aug 25, 2022
Top 100 Apartment and Condominium Contractors for 2022
Clark Group, Suffolk Construction, AECOM, and Lendlease top the ranking of the nation's largest apartment and condominium contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
University Buildings | Aug 25, 2022
Higher education, striving for ‘normal’ again, puts student needs at the center of project planning
Sustainability and design flexibility are what higher education clients are seeking consistently, according to the dozen AEC Giants contacted for this article. “University campuses across North America are commissioning new construction projects designed to make existing buildings and energy systems more sustainable, and are building new flexible learning space that bridge the gap between remote and in-person learning,” say Patrick McCafferty, Arup’s Education Business Leader–Americas East region, and Matt Humphries, Education Business Leader in Canada region.
| Aug 25, 2022
New York City’s congestion pricing aims to reduce traffic, cut carbon
Officials recently released an environmental assessment that analyzes seven different possible pricing schemes for New York City’s congestion pricing program.
