A grim Market Outlook foresees more shortages that impede construction

The good news: the cargo and transportation snags that have encumbered building material availability this year showed signs of finally easing in September.

The bad news: the lack of material supply and increasing demand for labor are keeping prices high, to the point where manufacturers aren’t willing to hold price quotes for more than a week, if at all.

That, in a nutshell, is the state of the construction market, which the general contractor Consigli lays out in its Market Outlook for October 2021. The Outlook, written by the firm’s Director of Purchasing Peter Capone and Vice President of Preconstruction Jared Lachapelle, sends up red alerts about the availability of six product categories—steel joist, steel deck, MEP equipment, roofing insulation, lab casework, and mineral/rock wool—whose lead times for fabrication after release, as of Sept. 1, ranged from 20 to 40 weeks, with steel joists having the longest wait time.

The Outlook reports a 12 percent average price escalation for the 15 building materials tracked, and anticipates another 3 percent bump through the final quarter of this year. Roofing insulation, roofing membranes, gypsum wallboard, light-gauge metal framing, and glass exceed the overall averages.

As a result of large manufacturers not willing to take risks on escalating prices. “subcontractors are being changed market increases at the time of delivery,” states the report.

MANAGING RISK TAKES DISCIPLINE

Consigli’s strategies for risk management include:

•lock in prices with subs that are willing to share risk

•buy in bulk quantities whenever possible

•consider alternative supply sources

•implement stringent quality assurance and control measures

•focus on weekly materials delivery verification

•pre-purchase and warehouse materials

•identify peak manpower needs

•utilize prefabrication that takes labor off site

•partner with trades through design-assist

Consigli thinks labor shortages could get worse in the second half of next year. The severity will depend, in part, on vaccination mandates at a time when a sizable number of construction workers still refuse to be vaccinated. But even a fully vaccinated workforce might struggle to keep pace with construction demand that the pending $1 trillion infrastructure bill, if passed, would further pressure.

The Outlook notes that some manufacturers are focusing their production capacities on commonly used materials like drywall and MEP equipment, which is limiting—and sometimes halting—the production of specialty products. And AEC firms need to be vigilant about maintaining compatibility and quality when manufacturers source products from alternate vendors.

Consigli sees some light at the end of this supply tunnel. Its Outlook notes that steel prices are starting to level off as production increases. But citing the National Roofing Contractors Association, Consigli also cautions that shortages in roofing materials and insulation (whose lead time right now is 24 weeks) will continue through next year because of raw materials supply issues.