Job gains boost Yardi Matrix National Rent Forecast for 2024

Multifamily asking rents broke the five-month streak of sequential average declines in January, rising 0.07 percent, shows a new special report from Yardi Matrix.

Last month, of the 142 markets tracked, 61 posted declines, 71 marked increases, and 10 remained flat. The largest increases continued to occur in midsize cities in the Northeast and South, including in White Plains, N.Y.; Buffalo, N.Y.; Birmingham, Ala.; Worcester-Springfield, Mass.; and Columbus, Ga. The largest decreases were consistent in Western markets and Florida.

National Rent Forecast in 2024

On a national level, by asset class, rents in the Renter-by-Necessity (RBN) segment rose 0.08 percent, outperforming Lifestyle (0.04 percent). The strongest performers in RBN rents, with MoM growth of over one percent, were 11 midsize cities in the South and Northeast and four markets in the West.

In the Lifestyle segment, 14 markets posted MoM growth greater than one percent, 10 of which were in the South or Midwest and four scattered far from Northeast—Honolulu, the Inland Empire, Miami, and the Central Coast.

“Overall performance in asking rents in January was remarkably strong for a month that is generally very weak and often negative, and we expect the trend of RBN rents performing better than Lifestyle rents to continue throughout the year,” say analysts.

The strong job reports and improving consumer confidence have pushed the expected mild recession to the end of this year or beginning of the next year. This has also impacted Yardi Matrix’s national forecast for 2024, up from 0.8 percent to 1.8 percent, but the substantial influx of supply expected to come online this year will dampen rent growth in many of the larger Sun Belt markets.

Read the latest Multifamily Rent Forecast Update from Yardi Matrix.

Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, student housing, vacant land, industrial, office, retail and self storage property types. Email matrix@yardi.com, call 480-663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn more.