Spending on nonresidential buildings will see a modest 4% increase in 2024, after increasing by more than 20% last year according to The American Institute of Architects’ latest Consensus Construction Forecast.
The pace will slow to just over 1% growth in 2025, a marked difference from the strong performance in 2023. Spending on commercial facilities will be flat this year and next, manufacturing construction will increase almost 10% this year before stabilizing in 2025, and institutional construction will see mid-single-digit gains this year and next.
The Consensus Construction Forecast panelists, a group comprised of the leading construction forecasters from across the country, found there are many factors fueling the projected slowdown:
- Tighter credit conditions continue to put pressure on many regional banks that account for a sizeable share of construction lending.
- Higher construction input costs due to inflation in materials costs and labor in recent years.
- Declines in commercial property values as weak demand continues in many sectors.
- Structural changes in demand, disrupting notoriously cyclical construction industry.
“There are several economic headwinds behind the projected slowdown,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “We already started to see construction starts either slow dramatically or turn negative in virtually all construction sectors in the latter part of 2023 and the weaker conditions are expected to stay into 2025.”
Related Stories
MFPRO+ Research | Sep 11, 2024
Multifamily rents fall for first time in 6 months
Ending its six-month streak of growth, the average advertised multifamily rent fell by $1 in August 2024 to $1,741.
Construction Costs | Sep 2, 2024
Construction material decreases level out, but some increases are expected to continue for the balance Q3 2024
The Q3 2024 Quarterly Construction Insights Report from Gordian examines the numerous variables that influence material pricing, including geography, global events and commodity volatility. Gordian and subject matter experts examine fluctuations in costs, their likely causes, and offer predictions about where pricing is likely to go from here. Here is a sampling of the report’s contents.
K-12 Schools | Aug 26, 2024
Windows in K-12 classrooms provide opportunities, not distractions
On a knee-jerk level, a window seems like a built-in distraction, guaranteed to promote wandering minds in any classroom or workspace. Yet, a steady stream of studies has found the opposite to be true.
MFPRO+ Research | Aug 9, 2024
Apartment completions to surpass 500,000 for first time ever
While the U.S. continues to maintain a steady pace of delivering new apartments, this year will be one for the record books.
Data Centers | Aug 8, 2024
Global edge data center market to cross $300 billion by 2026, says JLL
Technological megatrends, including IoT and generative AI, will require computing power to be closer to data generation and consumption, fueling growth of edge IT infrastructure, according to a new JLL report.
MFPRO+ Research | Aug 6, 2024
Matrix multifamily report for July shows ‘hopeful signs’
The multifamily market is showing strength in many ways, according to the July 2024 Matrix Multifamily National Report by Yardi Matrix.
MFPRO+ News | Jul 24, 2024
Most popular cities for renters mid-2024
Rental activity in the U.S. continues to grow halfway through 2024. With the work-from-home boom stabilizing, more renters are eying desirable cities to relocate to.
Office Buildings | Jul 22, 2024
U.S. commercial foreclosures increased 48% in June from last year
The commercial building sector continues to be under financial pressure as foreclosures nationwide increased 48% in June compared to June 2023, according to ATTOM, a real estate data analysis firm.
Healthcare Facilities | Jul 16, 2024
Watch on-demand: Key Trends in the Healthcare Facilities Market for 2024-2025
Join the Building Design+Construction editorial team for this on-demand webinar on key trends, innovations, and opportunities in the $65 billion U.S. healthcare buildings market. A panel of healthcare design and construction experts present their latest projects, trends, innovations, opportunities, and data/research on key healthcare facilities sub-sectors. A 2024-2025 U.S. healthcare facilities market outlook is also presented.
Healthcare Facilities | Jul 11, 2024
New download: BD+C's 2024 Healthcare Annual Report
Welcome to Building Design+Construction’s 2024 Healthcare Annual Report. This free 66-page special report is our first-ever “state of the state” update on the $65 billion healthcare construction sector.
