Multifamily housing will remain a robust market for A/E/C companies heading into 2020, according to the most recent results of PSMJ’s Quarterly Market Forecast (QMF) survey. For the third quarter of 2019, the survey found that less than 9% of the nearly 100 respondents doing multifamily work reported a decrease in proposal activity compared with the prior quarter, while more than 54% saw an increase.
The Multifamily market’s third quarter Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) of 46% marked the 31st consecutive quarter that the submarket exceeded an NPMI of 40%. The last time it was below that level was the third quarter of 2011.
PSMJ’s NPMI measures the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase in proposal activity and those reporting a decrease, quarter over quarter. PSMJ has been using the QMF as a predictor of the A/E/C industry’s health since 2003, tracking 12 major markets and 58 submarkets every three months. The company chose proposal activity to gauge the industry’s long-term outlook because it is among the earliest stages of the project lifecycle. Approximately 200 firms participate in the survey each quarter.
The Senior and Assisted Living submarket also performed well with a third-quarter NPMI of 49%. Only 4 of the 86 responding firms working in the senior care submarket reported declining proposal activity. The Senior/Assisted Living market has also been a consistently stellar performer in the QMF. Its NPMI hasn’t dipped below 50% since the fourth quarter of 2012.
“Multifamily and Senior/Assisted Living have been two of the hottest markets for proposal activity for quite some time, not only among the Housing submarkets, but throughout all 58 submarkets,” says PSMJ’s Greg Hart, a consultant who also oversees the QMF. “It is remarkable that both have seen such steady proposal growth for so long. Very few submarkets have been this consistently strong throughout the 16-year history of our survey.”
Housing (all submarkets) recorded an NPMI of 40% in the third quarter, a potentially noteworthy drop from the 59% recorded in the second quarter. After ranking the second-highest of the 12 major markets measured in the second quarter, Housing fell completely out of the top five in the third quarter. Transportation (49%) and Healthcare (46%) were tops among major markets.
Among the other Housing submarkets, Condominiums recorded a respectable NPMI of 24%, its sixth consecutive quarter in the mid-20% range. Individual single-family homes (15%) and subdivisions (8%) trailed the Housing field in the third quarter, falling markedly from 25% and 23%, respectively, in the second quarter. PSMJ Director and Senior Consultant Dave Burstein, PE, notes that the results are still positive, if potentially troubling in the longer term. He adds that lower mortgage interest rates on the horizon are likely to spur a rebound in the single-family and subdivision subsectors.
PSMJ Resources, Inc., based in Newton, Massachusetts, is a publishing, executive education, and advisory company dedicated to serving architecture, engineering and construction (A/E/C) organizations worldwide.
Related Stories
MFPRO+ New Projects | Oct 30, 2024
BIG’s One High Line finally reaches completion in New York City’s West Chelsea neighborhood
One High Line, a luxury residential project spanning a full city block in New York’s West Chelsea neighborhood, reached completion this summer following years of delays related to investor lawsuits.
MFPRO+ New Projects | Oct 30, 2024
Luxury waterfront tower in Brooklyn features East River and Manhattan skyline views
Leasing recently began for The Dupont, a 41-story luxury rental property along the Brooklyn, N.Y., waterfront. Located within the 22-acre Greenpoint Landing, where it overlooks the newly constructed Newtown Barge Park, the high-rise features East River and Manhattan skyline views along with 20,000 sf of indoor and outdoor communal space.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 28, 2024
A case for mid-rise: How multifamily housing can reshape our cities
Often referred to as “five-over-ones,” the mid-rise apartment type is typically comprised of five stories of apartments on top of a concrete “podium” of ground-floor retail. The main criticism of the “five-over-one” is that they are often too predictable.
Adaptive Reuse | Oct 22, 2024
Adaptive reuse project transforms 1840s-era mill building into rental housing
A recently opened multifamily property in Lawrence, Mass., is an adaptive reuse of an 1840s-era mill building. Stone Mill Lofts is one of the first all-electric mixed-income multifamily properties in Massachusetts. The all-electric building meets ambitious modern energy codes and stringent National Park Service historic preservation guidelines.
MFPRO+ News | Oct 22, 2024
Project financing tempers robust demand for multifamily housing
AEC Giants with multifamily practices report that the sector has been struggling over the past year, despite the high demand for housing, especially affordable products.
Products and Materials | Oct 17, 2024
5 multifamily tech products for your next project
Multifamily housing and technological upgrades go hand-in-hand. From the rise in electric vehicle charging needs to the sophistication of smart home accessories, tech products are abound in the multifamily space.
Codes and Standards | Oct 16, 2024
North Carolina’s code policies likely worsened damage caused by Hurricane Helene
The North Carolina Legislature’s rejection of building code updates likely worsened the damage caused by Hurricane Helene, code experts say. Over the past 15 years, lawmakers rejected limits on construction on steep slopes, which might have reduced the number of homes destroyed by landslides.
MFPRO+ News | Oct 16, 2024
One-third of young adults say hurricanes like Helene and Milton will impact where they choose to live
Nearly one-third of U.S. residents between 18 and 34 years old say they are reconsidering where they want to move after seeing the damage wrought by Hurricane Helene, according to a Redfin report. About 15% of those over age 35 echoed their younger cohort’s sentiment.
Student Housing | Oct 9, 2024
University of Maryland begins work on $148 million graduate student housing development
The University of Maryland, in partnership with Campus Apartments and Mosaic Development Partners, has broken ground on a $148.75 million graduate student housing project on the university’s flagship College Park campus. The project will add 741 beds in 465 fully furnished apartments.
MFPRO+ News | Oct 9, 2024
San Francisco unveils guidelines to streamline office-to-residential conversions
The San Francisco Department of Building Inspection announced a series of new building code guidelines clarifying adaptive reuse code provisions and exceptions for converting office-to-residential buildings. Developed in response to the Commercial to Residential Adaptive Reuse program established in July 2023, the guidelines aim to increase the viability of converting underutilized office buildings into housing by reducing regulatory barriers in specific zoning districts downtown.
