First-quarter proposal activity for multifamily housing added to prior quarter gains, reaching a near-record Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) of 71%. Multifamily topped the four other housing submarkets, though all performed well.
The first three months of the year saw housing lead all 12 major markets in the PSMJ Resources Quarterly Market Forecast survey of architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) firms.
PSMJ’s NPMI expresses the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase in proposal activity and those reporting a decrease. The QMF has proven to be a solid predictor of market health for the industry since its inception in 2003. A consistent group of over 300 AEC firm leaders participate regularly, with 183 contributing to the most recent survey.
Up 13 percentage points from the final quarter of 2020, multifamily’s NPMI of 71% tied its third-highest score since PSMJ added submarkets to its QMF survey in 2006. In addition to the record-high 76% in the 1st Quarter of 2018 and 72% in the 1st Quarter of 2012, Multifamily hit 71% in the 1st Quarter of 2015.
The 2021 performance marked a remarkable rebound for Multifamily, which dipped to -2% in the 1st Quarter of 2020, its first time in negative figures since 2010. In fact, before the COVID-driven drop a year ago, Multifamily’s NPMI had not fallen below 40% since the 3rd Quarter of 2011.
PSMJ Senior Principal David Burstein, PE, AECPM, noted that the strong performance of Multifamily and the entire Housing sector illustrates the industry’s overall economic health, as Housing growth often leads to activity in commercial, institutional and industrial markets as well. Should Congress pass an infrastructure stimulus bill, adds Burstein, the market could see even more historic growth.
Among respondents that work in the Multifamily sector, only 1% said that they saw a decrease in proposal opportunities in the 1st Quarter, compared with 72% that saw a noticeable increase. The remainder said that activity was about the same as the prior quarter.
The Assisted/Independent Senior Living submarket was another highflyer in the 1st Quarter, climbing 32 NPMI percentage points to 59%, tied for 12th -best among all submarkets. Condominiums bounced another 15 NPMI points to 30%, its best showing in three years.
The two other Housing markets measured in the PSMJ survey remain in rarefied air. The Housing Subdivision market recorded an NPMI of 68%, eclipsing its record-tying 4th -Quarter 2020 performance by 17 percentage points. Single-Family Homes dipped 8 NPMI percentage points to 51% – one of only 3 submarkets to see a decline – but that was still good enough for its second-best NPMI performance in the history of the QMF survey.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | May 19, 2016
Architect Jean Nouvel designs flood-resilient Monad Terrace in Miami Beach
A man-made lagoon with lush vegetation at the base of the complex is expected to adapt to climate change and rising sea levels.
Green | May 16, 2016
Development team picked for largest Passive House project in North America
The 24-story curved building would be 70% more efficient than comparable housing in New York City.
Multifamily Housing | May 12, 2016
Micro apartment complex planned for artsy Austin district
Indie Apartments will consist of 139 one- and two-bedroom units at 350- and 520-sf each.
Mixed-Use | May 1, 2016
A man-made lagoon with a Bellagio-like fountain will be the highlight of a mixed-use project outside Dallas
Construction will soon begin on housing, retail, and office spaces.
Senior Living Design | Apr 14, 2016
Creating a home for eldercare using the ‘Green House’ design concept
VOA Associates’ Douglas King offers design considerations in implementing the Green House concept in eldercare for continuing care retirement communities.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 7, 2016
Multifamily and Specialized Housing projects honored in 2016 AIA Housing Awards
A San Francisco low-income mixed-use complex, a Los Angeles homeless veterans housing facility, and a series of student residential buildings at UMass were among the winners.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 10, 2016
Access and energy control app clicks with student housing developers and managers
Ease of installation is one of StratIS’s selling features.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 7, 2016
Multifamily developers face steep costs for violating Fair Housing Act
Designers without previous multifamily experience could overlook key provisions.
High-rise Construction | Mar 3, 2016
HOK’s Hertsmere House will be Western Europe’s tallest residential tower
Recently approved for development, the 67-story building will have more than 900 units.
University Buildings | Feb 29, 2016
4 factors driving the student housing market
In the hyper-competitive higher education sector, colleges and universities view residence halls as extensions of their academic brands, both on and off campus.
