Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2022
Report examines supposed conflict between good design and effective cost management
A report by the American Institute of Architects and the Associated General Contractors of America takes a look at the supposed conflict between good design and effective cost management, and why it causes friction between architects and contractors.
Architects | Aug 11, 2022
Mancini Duffy Bill Mandara on expanding through diversification
In this segment for HorizonTV, BD+C's John Caulfield interviews Mancini Duffy's CEO and Co-owner William Mandara about his firm's recent growth, which includes an acquisition and new HQs office.
Energy Efficiency | Aug 11, 2022
Commercial Energy Efficiency: Finally “In-the-Money!”
By now, many business leaders are out in front of policymakers on prioritizing the energy transition.
High-rise Construction | Aug 11, 2022
Saudi Arabia unveils plans for a one-building city stretching over 100 miles long
Saudi Arabia recently announced plans for an ambitious urban project called The Line—a one-building city in the desert that will stretch 170 kilometers (106 miles) long and only 200 meters (656 feet) wide.
| Aug 10, 2022
U.S. needs more than four million new apartments by 2035
Roughly 4.3 million new apartments will be necessary by 2035 to meet rising demand, according to research from the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) and National Apartment Association.
| Aug 10, 2022
Gresham Smith Founder, Batey M. Gresham Jr., passes at Age 88
It is with deep sadness that Gresham Smith announces the passing of Batey M. Gresham Jr., AIA—one of the firm’s founders.
| Aug 9, 2022
Work-from-home trend could result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate
Researchers find major changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates.
| Aug 9, 2022
5 Lean principles of design-build
Simply put, lean is the practice of creating more value with fewer resources.
| Aug 9, 2022
Designing healthy learning environments
Studies confirm healthy environments can improve learning outcomes and student success.
Legislation | Aug 8, 2022
Inflation Reduction Act includes over $5 billion for low carbon procurement
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, recently passed by the U.S. Senate, sets aside over $5 billion for low carbon procurement in the built environment.
