Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Contractors | Sep 30, 2015
FMI: Construction in place on track for sustained growth through 2016
FMI’s latest report singles out manufacturing, lodging, and office sectors as the drivers of nonresidential building activity and investment.
![What went wrong? Diagnosing building envelope distress [AIA course]](/sites/default/files/styles/list_big/public/Screen%20shot%202015-09-29%20at%209.46.33%20AM.png?itok=QDq8CQJv "What went wrong? Diagnosing building envelope distress [AIA course]")
Reconstruction & Renovation | Sep 29, 2015
What went wrong? Diagnosing building envelope distress [AIA course]
With so many diverse components contributing to building envelope assemblies, it can be challenging to determine which of these myriad elements was the likely cause of a failure.
Architects | Sep 24, 2015
Supertall buildings vie for dominance along Chicago’s skyline
The latest proposals pit designs by Rafael Viñoly, Jeanne Gang, and Helmut Jahn.
Architects | Sep 24, 2015
From Gehry to the High Line: What makes a project a game-changer?
Each year, there are a handful of projects that significantly advance the AEC industry or a particular building type. Send us your game-changing projects for BD+C’s January 2016 special report.
Cultural Facilities | Sep 24, 2015
Bakpak Architects' 'pottery courtyard' concept in Poland incorporates local heritage
The multifunctional building proposed for Rzeszow, Poland, looks like it was handcrafted on a potter’s wheel.
Modular Building | Sep 23, 2015
SOM and DOE unveil 3D-printed, off-the-grid building
The Additive Manufacturing Integrated Energy (AMIE) building features a high-performance shell with a photovoltaic roof and built-in natural gas generator.
Airports | Sep 23, 2015
JFK Airport's dormant TWA terminal will be reborn as a hotel
After 15 years of disuse, the Googie architecture-inspired TWA Flight Center at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport will be transformed into a hotel. Gizmodo reports that the city’s Port Authority chose a renovation proposal from Jet Blue this week.
Architects | Sep 23, 2015
Architecture billings dip in August, but no 'cause for concern' says AIA economist
The American Institute of Architects reported the August ABI score was 49.1, down from a mark of 54.7 in July. This score reflects a slight decrease in design services.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Sep 21, 2015
Tokyo Olympic Stadium saga ends for Zaha Hadid
After resubmitting a bid, the firm will not design the main venue for the 2020 Olympics after all.
University Buildings | Sep 21, 2015
6 lessons in campus planning
For campus planning, focus typically falls on repairing the bricks and mortar without consideration of program priorities. Gensler's Pamela Delphenich offers helpful tips and advice.
