Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Architects | Nov 6, 2015
Hungary’s A4 Studio Wins World Architecture Community Award using ARCHICAD
Inspired by the suspended, community-designed shading structures seen on traditional Moroccan marketplaces, the Casablanca Market in Morocco allows traffic to flow through the arcade-like marketplace.
Healthcare Facilities | Nov 4, 2015
Hospital designers get the scoop on the role of innovation in healthcare
“Innovation” was the byword as 175 healthcare designers gathered in Chicago for the American College of Healthcare Architects/AIA Academy of Architecture for Health Summer Leadership Summit.
Office Buildings | Nov 3, 2015
Emotional intelligence and design
In a world in which technology and its skills are constantly changing, good people skills are becoming more important, writes VOA's Angie Lee.
Architects | Nov 2, 2015
NCARB: Interactive tool helps architects prep for exam
The Transition Calculator for the Architect Registration Examination (ARE) will help licensure candidates transition from ARE 4.0 to ARE 5.0.
Architects | Nov 2, 2015
China Accord: Design firms sign pledge to tackle climate change
52 companies will collaborate to reduce carbon emissions.
BIM and Information Technology | Oct 29, 2015
MIT develops ‘river of 3D pixels’ to assemble objects
The Kinetic Blocks can manipulate objects into shapes without human interference.
Architects | Oct 27, 2015
Top 10 tile trends for 2016
Supersized tile and 3D walls are among the trending tile design themes seen at Cersaie, an exhibition of ceramic tile and bathroom furnishings held in Bologna, Italy in October.
Architects | Oct 27, 2015
Architecture at Zero 2015 design competition names award winners
Entrants created family-style student residential plans for the University of California, San Francisco Mission Bay campus. All projects needed to be as close to net-zero as possible.
Architects | Oct 22, 2015
AIA: Architecture firms reporting progress on achieving carbon reduction targets as part of the 2030 Commitment
The AIA 2030 2014 Progress Report highlights an increase in design projects, gross square footage, and net-zero energy projects.
Architects | Oct 21, 2015
Strong rebound for Architecture Billings Index
Business conditions continue to be weak in the Northeast, but the other regions are in good shape.
