Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Mar 1, 2014
Dramatic fractal roof highlights SOM's new Mumbai airport terminal [slideshow]
The terminal merges new technology and traditional regional architecture, notably in the fractal roof canopy that runs throughout the terminal.
| Feb 28, 2014
Six finalists selected in design competition for Canadian Holocaust monument
David Adjaye and Daniel Libeskind are among the finalists for the National Holocaust Monument, planned near the Canadian War Museum in Ottawa.
| Feb 27, 2014
Gensler reveals 44 design trends for the next decade
The 82-page report covers dozens of emerging trends in healthcare, commercial office, hospitality, tall buildings, and more.
| Feb 27, 2014
Target converts former prison dump into latest big-box store
Target's new San Rafael, Calif., location was built on the site of the former San Quentin prison dump.
| Feb 27, 2014
Open or private offices? It depends on the business plan
Open layouts are grabbing headlines as a hallmark of the new workplace—think the Google campus or Facebook's headquarters. And for smaller-scale operations, open designs are often lauded for being less expensive than private office plans. But does that mean all offices should have an open layout?
| Feb 27, 2014
3 reasons to apply computational fluid dynamics on your next project
From right-sizing mechanical systems to understanding the impact of design alternatives, CFD offers a host of benefits for the Building Team.
| Feb 27, 2014
12 facts about heat-treated glass: Why stronger isn’t always better
Glass is heat-treated for two reasons: the first is to increase its strength to resist external stresses such as wind and snow loads, or thermal loads caused by the sun’s energy. The second is to temper glass so that it meets safety glazing requirements defined by applicable codes or federal standards.
| Feb 27, 2014
Metal Construction Association introduces two Environmental Product Declarations
Two Environmental Product Declarations (EPD), one for Metal Composite Material Panels and one for Roll Formed Steel Panels for Roofs and Walls, are now available free of charge from the Metal Construction Association (MCA) on its website.
| Feb 27, 2014
Bluebeam Software launches Revu 12 for better field-ready document management and project collaboration
The latest version of the company’s flagship solution better enables users in document-intensive industries to digitally collaborate on project documents and more easily connect the office to the field.
| Feb 27, 2014
PocketCake lunches CPU designed for virtual reality simulations
The company's Virtual Reality Simulation Converter Assembly is three times more powerful than the average high-performance computer and allows for up to eight people to experience a virtual reality simulation at the same time.
