Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Feb 26, 2014
Adaptive reuse project brings school into historic paper mill
The project features nontraditional classrooms for collaborative learning, an arts and music wing, and a technologically sophisticated global resource center.
| Feb 26, 2014
Use this app to streamline safety inspections
Using the iAuditor app, one of our Skanska teams developed electronic reports that make safety inspections more efficient, and that make it easier to address any issues emerging from them.
| Feb 26, 2014
Startup PocketCake aims to bring virtual reality simulations to the AEC masses
Founded in 2012, the development firm offers custom virtual reality simulations for the price of a typical architectural illustration.
| Feb 26, 2014
Billie Jean King National Tennis Center serving up three-phase expansion
The project includes the construction of two new stadiums and a retractable roof over the existing Arthur Ashe Stadium.
| Feb 25, 2014
Are these really the 'world's most spectacular university buildings'? [slideshow]
Emporis lists its top 13 higher education buildings from around the world. Do you agree with the rankings?
| Feb 25, 2014
NYC's Hudson Spire would be nation's tallest tower if built
Design architect MJM + A has released an updated design scheme for the planned 1,800-foot-tall, superthin skyscraper.
| Feb 24, 2014
White Paper: Using social media to build your business
This white paper from Benjamin Moore provides practical guidance for building and sustaining an effective online presence, with the ultimate goal of helping your painting business become more successful.
| Feb 24, 2014
First look: UC San Diego opens net-zero biological research lab
The facility is intended to be "the most sustainable laboratory in the world," and incorporates natural ventilation, passive cooling, high-efficiency plumbing, and sustainably harvested wood.
| Feb 24, 2014
White Paper: The science of color and light
This white paper from Benjamin Moore provides an overview of the properties of color and light, along with practical guidance on how the relationship between the two affects design choices.
| Feb 21, 2014
Naturally ventilated hospital planned in Singapore
The Ng Teng Fong General Hospital will take advantage of the region's prevailing breezes to cool the spaces.
