Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Feb 13, 2013
Advanced urbanism is focus of new MIT research center
MIT Center for Advanced Urbanism will seek 21st Century planning solutions, starting with infrastructure design issues.
| Feb 13, 2013
'Vegetative tower' apartments to revive NYC site
A Manhattan site formerly slated for development with a "tower of cubes"—a now-defunct project by Santiago Calatrava—will be revived with a 998-foot, 300,000-sf apartment building by Morali Architects.
| Feb 13, 2013
Fast Company selects 'most innovative' architecture firms
Business innovation magazine Fast Company has released a list of 10 "most innovative" architectural practices, worldwide.
| Feb 12, 2013
OMA's 'perimeter core' design wins competition for Essence Financial Building in Shenzhen
OMA partners David Gianotten and Rem Koolhaas rethink traditional office tower design with a plan that shifts the building's core to the edge for large, unobstructed plans.
| Feb 11, 2013
AIA elevates 122 members and seven international architects to the College of Fellows
The 2013 Jury of Fellows from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) elevated 122 AIA members to its prestigious College of Fellows, an honor awarded to members who have made significant contributions to the profession. The 2013 Fellows will be honored at an investiture ceremony at the 2013 National AIA Convention and Design Exposition in Denver.
| Feb 8, 2013
5 factors to consider when designing a shade system
Designing a shade system is more complex than picking out basic white venetian blinds. Here are five elements to consider when designing an interior shade system.
| Feb 8, 2013
Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum’s new wing voted Boston’s 'most beautiful new building'
Bostonians voted the Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum's new wing the People's Choice Award winner for 2012, honoring the project as the city's "most beautiful new building" for the calendar year. The new wing, designed by Renzo Piano and Stantec, beat out three other projects on the short list.
| Feb 6, 2013
Arcadia (Calif.) High School opens $20 million performing arts center
A 60-year old wish for the community of Arcadia has finally come true with the opening of Arcadia Unified School District’s new $20 million Performing Arts Center.
