Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Jan 16, 2013
2013 40 Under 40 application process now open
Building Design+Construction's 40 Under 40 is open to AEC professionals from around the globe.
| Jan 16, 2013
SOM’s innovative Zhengzhou Greenland Plaza opens
The 2.59-million-square-feet building houses a mixed-use program of offices on its lower floors and a 416-room hotel.
| Jan 15, 2013
Morris Architects joins Huitt-Zollars
Morris, which will continue to provide services under its current name and leadership, is entering its 75th year of continuous practice as an architectural, interior design, landscape architecture, and planning firm.
| Jan 11, 2013
HMC Architects: In their own voices
See what HMC professionals say about their “Best AEC Firm to Work For”
| Jan 10, 2013
Guide predicts strongest, weakest AEC markets for 2013
2013 Guide to U.S. AEC markets touts apartments, natural gas, senior housing and transmission and distribution.
| Jan 9, 2013
Panasonic and Bluebeam preview new architect app at CES 2013
Panasonic and Bluebeam Software collaborate to develop and introduce the 4K tablet and software to the design and construction industry.
| Jan 3, 2013
Answered prayers
A bold renovation enables a small church to expand its mission on a grand scale.
| Jan 3, 2013
Top BIM/VDC articles of 2011-2012
A compendium of BD+Cs top building information modeling and virtual design + construction articles from 2011-12.
| Jan 3, 2013
8 trends shaping today’s senior housing
The ranks of those age 65 and older are swelling by the thousands every day. Is there an opportunity for your firm in the seniors housing market?
