Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Dec 27, 2011
Suffolk Construction celebrates raising of Boston Tea Party Ships & Museum cupola
Topping off ceremony held on 238th Anniversary of Boston Tea Party.
| Dec 27, 2011
State of the data center 2011
Advances in technology, an increased reliance on the Internet and social media as well as an increased focus on energy management initiatives have had a significant impact on the data center world.
| Dec 27, 2011
USGBC’s Center for Green Schools releases Best of Green Schools 2011
Recipient schools and regions from across the nation - from K-12 to higher education - were recognized for a variety of sustainable, cost-cutting measures, including energy conservation, record numbers of LEED certified buildings and collaborative platforms and policies to green U.S. school infrastructure.
| Dec 21, 2011
DOE report details finance options for PV systems in schools
The report examines the two primary types of ownership models used to obtain PV installations for school administrators to use in selecting the best option for deploying solar technologies in their districts.
| Dec 21, 2011
AIA Chicago & AIA Chicago Foundation 2011 Dubin Family Young Architect Award announced
The Dubin Family Young Architect Award is bestowed annually and recognizes excellence in ability and exceptional contributions by a Chicago architect between the ages of 25 and 39.
| Dec 21, 2011
Few silver linings for construction in 2012
On the brighter side, nearly half of respondents (49.7%) said their firms were in at least “good” financial health, and four-fifths (80.2%) said their companies would at least hold steady in revenue in 2012.
| Dec 21, 2011
Hoboken Terminal restoration complete
Restoration of ferry slips, expanded service to benefit commuters.
| Dec 21, 2011
BBI key to Philly high-rise renovation
The 200,000 sf building was recently outfitted with a new HVAC system and a state-of-the-art window retrofitting system.
| Dec 20, 2011
Gluckman Mayner Architects releases design for Syracuse law building
The design reflects an organizational clarity and professional sophistication that anticipates the user experience of students, faculty, and visitors alike.
| Dec 20, 2011
Research identifies most expensive U.S. commercial real estate markets
New York City, Washington, D.C. and San Mateo, Calif., rank highest in rents.
