Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Dec 8, 2011
Keast & Hood Co. part of Statue of Liberty renovation team
Keast & Hood Co., is the structural engineer-of-record for the year-long $27.25 million renovation of the Statue of Liberty.
| Dec 8, 2011
HDR opens office in Shanghai
The office, located in the Chong Hing Finance Center in Shanghai’s busy Huangpu District, will support HDR’s design efforts throughout Asia.
| Dec 8, 2011
HOK elevates the green office standard
Firm achieves LEED Platinum certification in New York office that overlooks Bryant Park.
| Dec 7, 2011
ACE Mentor Program receives Presidential Award for Excellence in Science, Math and Engineering Mentoring
Thornton Tomasetti founding principal Charles H. Thornton responsible for launching ACE.
| Dec 7, 2011
NSF International qualifies first wallcoverings distributor to the New American National Standard for Sustainable Wallcoverings
TRI-KES demonstrates leadership in environmental stewardship as the first distributor to earn qualification.
| Dec 7, 2011
DPR Foundation awards $590,000 to youth organizations
Grants will fund programs for disadvantaged kids across six states.
| Dec 7, 2011
Autodesk agrees to acquire Horizontal Systems
Acquisition extends and accelerates cloud-based BIM solutions for collaboration, data, and lifecycle management.
| Dec 7, 2011
ICS Builders and BKSK Architects complete St. Hilda’s House in Manhattan
The facility's design highlights the inherent link between environmental consciousness and religious reverence.
| Dec 6, 2011
Construction industry leaders gather for forum on diversity
Declared a “groundbreaking” event for the industry, Gilbane’s First Annual National Partners Council Forum addressed diversity and inclusion as well as building partnerships with minority, veteran, and women-owned businesses.
