Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Nov 29, 2011
Turner Construction establishes partnership with Clark Builders
Partnership advances growth in the Canadian marketplace.
| Nov 29, 2011
AIA launches stalled projects database
To populate this database with both stalled projects and investors interested in financing them, the AIA in the last week initiated a communications campaign to solicit information about stalled projects around the country from its members and allied professionals.
| Nov 28, 2011
Leo A Daly and McCarthy Building complete Casino Del Sol expansion in Tucson, Ariz.
Firms partner with Pascua Yaqui Tribe to bring new $130 million Hotel, Spa & Convention Center to the Tucson, Ariz., community.
| Nov 28, 2011
Armstrong acquires Simplex Ceilings
Simplex will become part of the Armstrong Building Products division.
| Nov 28, 2011
Nauset Construction completes addition for Franciscan Hospital for Children
The $6.5 million fast-track, urban design-build projectwas completed in just over 16 months in a highly sensitive, occupied and operational medical environment.
| Nov 23, 2011
Lord, Aeck & Sargent opens fourth U.S. office, acquiring architecture firm in Austin, Texas
Strategic move offers growth opportunity and strengthens the firm’s historic preservation portfolio.
| Nov 23, 2011
Griffin Electric completes Gwinnett Tech project
Accommodating up to 3,000 students annually beginning this fall, the 78,000-sf, three-story facility consists of thirteen classrooms and twelve high-tech laboratories, in addition to several lecture halls and faculty offices.
| Nov 22, 2011
Corporate America adopting revolutionary technology
The survey also found that by 2015, the standard of square feet allocated per employee is expected to drop from 200 to estimates ranging from 50 to 100 square feet per person dependent upon the industry sector.
| Nov 22, 2011
Report finds that L.A. lags on solar energy, offers policy solutions
Despite robust training programs, L.A. lacks solar jobs; lost opportunity for workers in high-need communities.
| Nov 22, 2011
Saskatchewan's $1.24 billion carbon-capture project
The government of Saskatchewan has approved construction of the Boundary Dam Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage Demonstration Project.
