Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Feb 15, 2011
Iconic TWA terminal may reopen as a boutique hotel
The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey hopes to squeeze a hotel with about 150 rooms in the space between the old TWA terminal and the new JetBlue building. The old TWA terminal would serve as an entry to the hotel and hotel lobby, which would also contain restaurants and shops.
| Feb 15, 2011
New Orleans' rebuilt public housing architecture gets mixed reviews
The architecture of New Orleans’ new public housing is awash with optimism about how urban-design will improve residents' lives—but the changes are based on the idealism of an earlier era that’s being erased and revised.
| Feb 15, 2011
LAUSD commissions innovative prefab prototypes for future building
The LA Unified School District, under the leadership of a new facilities director, reversed course regarding prototypes for its new schools and engaged architects to create compelling kit-of-parts schemes that are largely prefabricated.
| Feb 15, 2011
New 2030 Challenge to include carbon footprint of building materials and products
Architecture 2030 has just broadened the scope of its 2030 Challenge, issuing an additional challenge regarding the climate impact of building products. The 2030 Challenge for Products aims to reduce the embodied carbon (meaning the carbon emissions equivalent) of building products 50% by 2030.
| Feb 15, 2011
New Urbanist Andrés Duany: We need a LEED Brown rating
Andrés Duany advocates a "LEED Brown" rating that would give contractors credit for using traditional but low cost measures that are not easy to quantify or certify. He described these steps as "the original green," and "what we did when we didn't have money." Ostensibly, LEED Brown would be in addition to the current Silver, Gold and Platinum ratings.
| Feb 15, 2011
AIA on President Obama's proposed $1 billion investment in energy conservation
The President’s budget increases the value of investment in energy conservation in commercial buildings by roughly $1 billion, reports AIA 2011 President Clark Manus, FAIA. The significant increase from the current tax deduction of $1.80 per sq. ft. now on the books is an increase for which the AIA has been advocating in order to encourage energy conservation.
| Feb 14, 2011
Sustainable Roofing: A Whole-Building Approach
According to sustainability experts, the first step toward designing an energy-efficient roofing system is to see roof materials and systems as an integral component of the enclosure and the building as a whole. Earn 1.0 AIA/CES learning units by studying this article and successfully completing the online exam.
| Feb 11, 2011
Four Products That Stand Up to Hurricanes
What do a panelized wall system, a newly developed roof hatch, spray polyurethane foam, and a custom-made curtain wall have in common? They’ve been extensively researched and tested for their ability to take abuse from the likes of Hurricane Katrina.
