Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | May 1, 2023
A prefab multifamily housing project will deliver 200 new apartments near downtown Denver
In Denver, Mortenson, a Colorado-based builder, developer, and engineering services provider, along with joint venture partner Pinnacle Partners, has broken ground on Revival on Platte, a multifamily housing project. The 234,156-sf development will feature 200 studio, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom apartments on eight floors, with two levels of parking.
Mass Timber | May 1, 2023
SOM designs mass timber climate solutions center on Governors Island, anchored by Stony Brook University
Governors Island in New York Harbor will be home to a new climate-solutions center called The New York Climate Exchange. Designed by Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM), The Exchange will develop and deploy solutions to the global climate crisis while also acting as a regional hub for the green economy. New York’s Stony Brook University will serve as the center’s anchor institution.
Market Data | May 1, 2023
AEC firm proposal activity rebounds in the first quarter of 2023: PSMJ report
Proposal activity for architecture, engineering and construction (A/E/C) firms increased significantly in the 1st Quarter of 2023, according to PSMJ’s Quarterly Market Forecast (QMF) survey. The predictive measure of the industry’s health rebounded to a net plus/minus index (NPMI) of 32.8 in the first three months of the year.
Sustainability | May 1, 2023
Increased focus on sustainability is good for business and attracting employees
A recent study, 2023 State of Design & Make by software developer Autodesk, contains some interesting takeaways for the design and construction industry. Respondents to a survey of industry leaders from the architecture, engineering, construction, product design, manufacturing, and entertainment spheres strongly support the idea that improving their organization’s sustainability practices is good for business.
Codes and Standards | May 1, 2023
Hurricane Ian aftermath expected to prompt building code reform in Florida
Hurricane Ian struck the Southwest Florida coastline last fall with winds exceeding 150 mph, flooding cities, and devastating structures across the state. A construction risk management expert believes the projected economic damage, as high as $75 billion, will prompt the state to beef up building codes and reform land use rules.
| Apr 28, 2023
$1 billion mixed-use multifamily development will add 1,200 units to South Florida market
A giant $1 billion residential project, The District in Davie, will bring 1.6 million sf of new Class A residential apartments to the hot South Florida market. Located near Ft. Lauderdale and greater Miami, the development will include 36,000 sf of restaurants and retail space. The development will also provide 1.1 million sf of access controlled onsite parking with 2,650 parking spaces.
Architects | Apr 27, 2023
Blind Ambition: Insights from a blind architect on universal design
Blind architect Chris Downey shares his message to designers that universal design goes much further than simply meeting a code to make everything accessible.
Design Innovation Report | Apr 27, 2023
BD+C's 2023 Design Innovation Report
Building Design+Construction’s Design Innovation Report presents projects, spaces, and initiatives—and the AEC professionals behind them—that push the boundaries of building design. This year, we feature four novel projects and one building science innovation.
Mixed-Use | Apr 27, 2023
New Jersey turns a brownfield site into Steel Tech, a 3.3-acre mixed-use development
In Jersey City, N.J., a 3.3-acre redevelopment project called Steel Tech will turn a brownfield site into a mixed-use residential high-rise building, a community center, two public plazas, and a business incubator facility. Steel Tech received site plan approval in recent weeks.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 27, 2023
Watch: Specifying materials in multifamily housing projects
A trio of multifamily housing experts discusses trends in materials in their latest developments. Topics include the need to balance aesthetics and durability, the advantages of textured materials, and the benefits of biophilia.
