Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Aug 19, 2022
Cuningham appoints Jacqueline Dompe as new Chief Executive Officer
Cuningham, a national design firm, is thrilled to announce the appointment of Jacqueline Dompe as the firm’s Chief Executive Officer (CEO).
| Aug 19, 2022
Future sea rise could expose 720,000 more people on East Coast to flooding
An analysis by NPR based on modeling from the National Hurricane Center for New York City, Washington, D.C., and Miami-Dade County found future sea rise could expose about 720,000 more people to damaging floods later this century.
| Aug 19, 2022
Manassas Museum renovated to reimagine a civic design & engage the community
Manassas, VA has recently added to its historic Manassas Museum.
Architects | Aug 18, 2022
GSA names Charles Hardy, AIA, CCM, Chief Architect at GSA Public Buildings Service
The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) has named Charles (Chuck) Hardy as GSA’s next Chief Architect, effective August 14, 2022. A licensed architect, workplace strategist, and certified construction manager, Hardy’s career with GSA spans more than 31 years, beginning in GSA’s Great Lakes Region as an architect and project manager.
| Aug 18, 2022
U.S. Treasury moves to boost affordable housing
The Department of the Treasury recently announced new guidance to “increase the ability of state, local, and tribal governments to use American Rescue Plan (ARP) funds to boost the supply of affordable housing in their communities,” according to a news release.
Daylighting | Aug 18, 2022
Lisa Heschong on 'Thermal and Visual Delight in Architecture'
Lisa Heschong, FIES, discusses her books, "Thermal Delight in Architecture" and "Visual Delight in Architecture," with BD+C's Rob Cassidy.
| Aug 18, 2022
The Illinois Institute of Technology restores three Mies van der Rohe buildings
With Dirk Denison Architects and Gilbane Building Company, the Illinois Institute of Technology has recently completed a $70 million housing project that has restored three Ludwig Mies van der Rohe buildings.
Multifamily Housing | Aug 17, 2022
California strip mall goes multifamily residential
Tiny Tim Plaza started out as a gas station and a dozen or so stores. Now it’s a thriving mixed-use community, minus the gas station.
| Aug 17, 2022
Focusing on building envelope design and commissioning
Building envelope design is constantly evolving as new products and assemblies are developed.
| Aug 17, 2022
New York to deploy 30,000 window-sized electric heat pumps in city-owned apartments
New York officials recently announced the state and the city will invest $70 million to roll out 30,000 window-sized electric heat pumps in city-owned apartments.
