Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Aug 17, 2022
IBM’s former office buildings in Boca Raton turn into a modern tech campus
Built in 1968, the Boca Raton Innovation Campus (BRiC), at 1.7 million square feet, is the largest office campus in Florida.
| Aug 16, 2022
DOE funds 18 projects developing tech to enable buildings to store carbon
The Department of Energy announced $39 million in awards for 18 projects that are developing technologies to transform buildings into net carbon storage structures.
| Aug 16, 2022
Multifamily holds strong – for now
All leading indicators show that the multifamily sector is shrugging off rising interest rates, inflationary pressures and other economic challenges, and will continue to be a torrid market for design and construction firms for at least the rest of 2022.
| Aug 16, 2022
Cedars-Sinai Urgent Care Clinic’s high design for urgent care
The new Cedars-Sinai Los Feliz Urgent Care Clinic in Los Angeles plays against type, offering a stylized design to what are typically mundane, utilitarian buildings.
| Aug 15, 2022
IF you build it, will they come? The problem of staff respite in healthcare facilities
Architects and designers have long argued for the value of respite spaces in healthcare facilities.
| Aug 15, 2022
Boston high-rise will be largest Passive House office building in the world
Winthrop Center, a new 691-foot tall, mixed-use tower in Boston was recently honored with the Passive House Trailblazer award.
Architects | Aug 12, 2022
Goettsch Partners names James Zheng, CEO, and Paul de Santis, Co-design Director
Global architecture firm Goettsch Partners (GP) announces that James Zheng, AIA, LEED AP, has been named CEO, and Paul De Santis, Assoc. AIA, LEED AP, joins James Goettsch, FAIA, as co-design directors for the practice. As the primary partners in the firm, the three have worked closely together for more than 17 years. Goettsch will also continue to serve as chairman while Zheng now assumes the full CEO title as well as president.
| Aug 12, 2022
Monthly Construction Input Prices Decreased 2% in July, Up 17% From a Year Ago, Says ABC
Construction input prices decreased 1.8% in July compared to the previous month, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index data released today.
Hotel Facilities | Aug 12, 2022
Denver builds the nation’s first carbon-positive hotel
Touted as the nation’s first carbon-positive hotel, Populus recently broke ground in downtown Denver.
| Aug 11, 2022
Report examines supposed conflict between good design and effective cost management
A report by the American Institute of Architects and the Associated General Contractors of America takes a look at the supposed conflict between good design and effective cost management, and why it causes friction between architects and contractors.
