Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Cultural Facilities | Jun 15, 2022
Gehry-designed Children’s Institute aims to foster community outreach in L.A.’s Watts neighborhood
The Children’s Institute (CII) in Los Angeles will open a 200,000-sf campus designed by Frank Gehry this summer.
Building Team | Jun 14, 2022
Thinking beyond the stadium: the future of district development
Traditional sports and entertainment venues are fading as teams and entertainment entities strive to move toward more diversified entertainment districts.
Codes and Standards | Jun 14, 2022
Hospitals’ fossil fuel use trending downward, but electricity use isn’t declining as much
The 2021 Hospital Energy and Water Benchmarking Survey by Grumman|Butkus Associates found that U.S. hospitals’ use of fossil fuels is declining since the inception of the annual survey 25 years ago, but electricity use is dipping more slowly.
Healthcare Facilities | Jun 13, 2022
University of Kansas Health System cancer care floors foster community and empathy
On three floors of Cambridge Tower A at The University of Kansas Health System in Kansas City, patients being treated for blood cancers have a dedicated space that not only keeps them safe during immune system comprising treatments, but also provide feelings of comfort and compassion.
Building Team | Jun 13, 2022
Ware Malcomb promotes Matt Chaiken to vice president
Ware Malcomb, an award-winning international design firm, today announced that Matt Chaiken has been promoted to Vice President in the firm’s Denver office.
Building Team | Jun 13, 2022
Partnership rethinks emergency shelters to turn them into sustainable, resilient homes
Holcim and the Norman Foster Foundation have struck a partnership to rethink emergency shelters to turn them into sustainable and resilient homes.
Building Team | Jun 13, 2022
A mixed-used building to rise above Fort Lauderdale, with views of downtown and the ocean
ODA, a New York-based architecture and design studio, recently released renderings of Ombelle, a project including two residential towers in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
Office Buildings | Jun 13, 2022
San Antonio’s electric utility HQ to transform into a modern office building
In San Antonio, Tex., the former headquarters of CPS Energy, the city’s electric utility, is slated to transform into 100,000 square feet of office and retail space on San Antonio’s famed River Walk.
Cultural Facilities | Jun 10, 2022
After 10 Years, Taiwan’s new Taipei Music Center Reaches the Finish Line
RUR Architecture has finished the Taipei Music Center (TMC), turning a 22-acre (9-hectare) site into a new urban arts district.
Building Technology | Jun 9, 2022
GSA Green Proving Ground program selects six innovative building technologies for evaluation
The U.S. General Services Administration’s (GSA) Green Proving Ground program, in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy, has selected six innovative building technologies for evaluation in GSA’s inventory.
