Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Industrial Facilities | Apr 14, 2022
JLL's take on the race for industrial space
In the previous decade, the inventory of industrial space couldn’t keep up with demand that was driven by the dual surges of the coronavirus and online shopping. Vacancies declined and rents rose. JLL has just published a research report on this sector called “The Race for Industrial Space.” Mehtab Randhawa, JLL’s Americas Head of Industrial Research, shares the highlights of a new report on the industrial sector's growth.
High-rise Construction | Apr 14, 2022
Seattle’s high-rise convention center nears completion
The new Washington State Convention Center Summit Building—billed as the first high-rise convention center in North America—is on track to complete most of its construction later this year.
Building Team | Apr 14, 2022
TLC Engineering Solutions, Inc. acquires Moye I.T. Consulting, LLC
TLC Engineering Solutions, Inc. (TLC) is excited to announce that Moye I.T. Consulting, LLC (Moye Consulting) has joined the TLC team, expanding the breadth of its IT and Technology capabilities, as well as its national portfolio.
Wood | Apr 13, 2022
Mass timber: Multifamily’s next big building system
Mass timber construction experts offer advice on how to use prefabricated wood systems to help you reach for the heights with your next apartment or condominium project.
AEC Tech | Apr 13, 2022
Morphosis designs EV charging station for automaker Genesis
LA-based design and architecture firm Morphosis has partnered with automotive luxury brand Genesis to bring their signature brand and styling, attention-to-detail, and seamless customer experience to the design of Electric Vehicle Charging (EVC) Stations.
AEC Tech | Apr 13, 2022
A robot automates elevator installation
Schindler—which manufactures and installs elevators, escalators, and moving walkways—has created a robot called R.I.S.E. (robotic installation system for elevators) to help install lifts in high-rise buildings.
Government Buildings | Apr 11, 2022
Milan’s new US Consulate celebrates Italian design
In Milan, Italy, the new U.S. Consulate General broke ground on April 6. Managed by Overseas Buildings Operations (OBO), a U.S. government agency that directs overseas builds, the 10-acre campus will feature a new Consulate building, as well as the restoration of the site’s historic Liberty Building and reconstruction of a pavilion on the 80,000-square-foot parade ground.
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | Apr 10, 2022
Designing with commercial and industrial insulated metal wall panels
Discover the characteristics, benefits and design options for commercial/industrial buildings using insulated metal panels (IMPs). Recognize the factors affecting panel spans and the relationship of these to structural supports. Gain knowledge of IMP code compliance.
Laboratories | Apr 7, 2022
North Carolina's latest play for biotech real estate development
The Tar Heel State is among a growing number of markets rolling out the welcome mat for lab spaces.
Healthcare Facilities | Apr 7, 2022
Visibility breeds traffic in healthcare design
Ryan Companies has completed several healthcare projects that gain exposure by being near retail stores or office buildings.
