Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Resiliency | Feb 15, 2022
Design strategies for resilient buildings
LEO A DALY's National Director of Engineering Kim Cowman takes a building-level look at resilient design.
Products and Materials | Feb 14, 2022
How building owners and developers can get ahead of the next supply chain disaster
Global supply chain interruptions that started at the very beginning of the pandemic are still with us and compounding every step of the way. Below are a few proven tips on how to avert some of the costly fallout should we be faced with similar commercial disasters at any time in the future.
Urban Planning | Feb 14, 2022
5 steps to remake suburbs into green communities where people want to live, work, and play
Stantec's John Bachmann offers proven tactic for retrofitting communities for success in the post-COVID era.
Urban Planning | Feb 11, 2022
6 ways to breathe life into mixed-use spaces
To activate mixed-use spaces and realize their fullest potential, project teams should aim to create a sense of community and pay homage to the local history.
Senior Living Design | Feb 11, 2022
Design for senior living: A chat with Rocky Berg, AIA
Rob Cassidy, Editor of MULTIFAMILY Design + Construction, chats with Rocky Berg, AIA, Principal with Dallas architecture firm three, about how to design senior living communities to meet the needs of the owner, seniors, their families, and staff.
Architects | Feb 11, 2022
How computer simulations of vision loss create more empathetic buildings for the visually impaired
Here is a look at four challenges identified from our research and how the design responds accordingly.
Healthcare Facilities | Feb 10, 2022
Respite for the weary healthcare worker
The pandemic has shined a light on the severe occupational stress facing healthcare workers. Creating restorative hospital environments can ease their feelings of anxiety and burnout while improving their ability to care for patients.
Architects | Feb 8, 2022
Perkins Eastman and BLT Architects merge
Expanding services in hospitality, education, and mixed-use sectors to better serve clients.
Architects | Feb 3, 2022
SmithGroup elevates Mark Adams to lead workplace practice
In his new role, Adams leads the firm’s practice devoted to the design of corporate and commercial facilities.
Architects | Feb 2, 2022
Steven L. Pliam joins LEO A DALY as Design Technology Leader
Pliam will oversee the deployment and use of technologies such as computational design, parametric design, digital practice, reality capture, visualization, virtual/augmented reality, GIS and AI/Machine Learning.
