Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Healthcare Facilities | Aug 2, 2017
8 healthcare design lessons from shadowing a nurse
From the surprising number of “hunting and gathering” trips to the need for quiet spaces for phone calls, interior designer Carolyn Fleetwood Blake shares her takeaways from a day shadowing a nurse.
Sponsored | Architects | Aug 2, 2017
Are visual ergonomics the new key to project delivery?
An Australian Home Theater Company is out to prove that the easier you can see it, the easier you can sell it.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 27, 2017
Apartment market index: Business conditions soften, but still solid
Despite some softness at the high end of the apartment market, demand for apartments will continue to be substantial for years to come, according to the National Multifamily Housing Council.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 27, 2017
Game rooms and game simulators popular amenities in multifamily developments
The number of developments providing space for physical therapy was somewhat surprising, according to a new survey.
Building Enclosure Systems | Jul 26, 2017
Balcony and roof railings and the code: Maintain, repair, or replace? [AIA course]
Lacking familiarity with current requirements, some owners or managers complete a roof or balcony rehabilitation, only to learn after the fact that they need to tear noncompliant railings out of their new roof or terrace and install new ones.
Office Buildings | Jul 26, 2017
Meeting space leads to innovation
PDR Principal Larry Lander explains how to design for workplaces where four generations are working together.
Architects | Jul 25, 2017
AIA 2030 Commitment expands beyond 400 architecture firms
The 2016 Progress Report is now available.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 19, 2017
Student housing trends: The transformation of co-living in college
The Student Hotel is representative of a new model for delivering housing solutions for students globally.
Designers | Jul 19, 2017
5 laws every designer can live by
What is design? Who are designers? And are there any common laws or rules than can unite the many types of design that exist?
Sponsored | Architects | Jul 19, 2017
Introducing StrXur by Bluebeam
Our goal is to present unique perspectives you may not be able to find anywhere else.
