Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Feb 14, 2014
The Technology Report 2014: Top tech tools and trends for AEC professionals
In this special five-part report, Building Design+Construction explores how Building Teams throughout the world are utilizing advanced robotics, 3D printers, drones, data-driven design, and breakthroughs in building information modeling to gain efficiencies and create better buildings.
| Feb 14, 2014
Crowdsourced Placemaking: How people will help shape architecture
The rise of mobile devices and social media, coupled with the use of advanced survey tools and interactive mapping apps, has created a powerful conduit through which Building Teams can capture real-time data on the public. For the first time, the masses can have a real say in how the built environment around them is formed—that is, if Building Teams are willing to listen.
| Feb 13, 2014
University officials sound off on net zero energy buildings
As part of its ongoing ZNE buildings research project, Sasaki Associates, in collaboration with Buro Happold, surveyed some 500 campus designers and representatives on the top challenges and opportunities for achieving net-zero energy performance on university and college campuses.
| Feb 13, 2014
3 keys to designing freestanding emergency departments
Having physically disassociated from a central hospital, FEDs must overcome the particular challenges associated with a satellite location, namely a lack of awareness, appeal, and credibility. Gresham, Smith & Partners' Kristin Herman-Druc offers three keys to success.
| Feb 13, 2014
Why you should start with a builder
They say the best way to eat an elephant is one bite at a time. Expanding your building or constructing a new structure for your business, church, or school isn’t all that different. Attacking it is best done in small, deliberate pieces.
| Feb 13, 2014
Related Companies, LargaVista partner to develop mixed-use tower in SoHo
The site is located at the gateway to the booming SoHo retail market, where Class A office space is scarce yet highly in demand.
| Feb 12, 2014
First Look: Futuristic Silicon Valley campus designed to draw tech startups
The curved campus will consist of four different buildings, one exclusively for amenities like a coffee bar, bike shop, and bank.
| Feb 12, 2014
IIT's College of Architecture launches the Mies Crown Hall Americas Prize
Awarded biennially with a $50,000 prize, the program will recognize the most distinguished architectural works built on the North and South American continents in the preceding two years.
| Feb 11, 2014
Adobe Photoshop update features new 3D printing capabilities
Available as part of an update to Photoshop Creative Cloud, the tool enables users to easily and reliably build, refine, preview, prepare, and print 3D designs.
| Feb 10, 2014
Proposed parking garage will sandwich vehicles between housing and retail space
Architecture firm Brisac Gonzalez says that the design "will introduce different activities after parking hours."
