Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Jan 24, 2014
ZGF announces formal partnership with Vancouver's Cotter Architects
ZGF has announced the formal establishment of a Vancouver, British Columbia, presence in partnership with Cotter Architects.
| Jan 24, 2014
Structural concrete requirements under revision: ACI 318 standard
The American Concrete Institute (ACI), an organization whose mission is to develop and disseminate consensus-based knowledge on concrete and its uses, is finalizing a completely reorganized ACI 318-14: Building Code Requirements for Structural Concrete.
| Jan 23, 2014
SMPS Announces Call for Entries for 37th Annual Marketing Communications Awards Program
The Society for Marketing Professional Services (SMPS) is accepting entries for its 37th Annual Marketing Communications Awards (MCA) competition. The MCA program is the longest-standing, most prestigious awards program recognizing excellence in marketing communications by professional services firms in the design and building industry. The entry deadline is March 3, 2014. SMPS members and nonmembers are eligible to enter.
| Jan 23, 2014
Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill-designed Federation of Korean Industries tower opens in Seoul [slideshow]
The 50-story tower features a unique, angled building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) exterior designed to maximize the amount of energy collected.
| Jan 23, 2014
Think you can recognize a metal building from the outside?
What looks like brick, stucco or wood on the outside could actually be a metal building. Metal is no longer easily detectable. It’s gotten sneakier visually. And a great example of that is the Madison Square retail center in Norman, Okla.
| Jan 23, 2014
3 fatal flaws your architecture firm has right now
After visiting over 200 architecture firms, I was aghast that so many of them were committing these costly sins of mismanagement and miscommunication, without even realizing it. If I can stop even one more firm from shooting its own foot, then this is worth it.
| Jan 22, 2014
SOM-designed University Center uses 'sky quads,' stacked staircases to promote chance encounters
The New School's vertical campus in Manhattan houses multiple functions, including labs, design studios, a library, and student residences, in a 16-story building.
| Jan 22, 2014
Architecture Billings Index sees first back-to-back decline since mid-2012
The AIA's Architecture Billings Index dipped for the second consecutive month in December—the first consecutive months of contraction since May and June of 2012.
| Jan 21, 2014
Comcast to build second Philadelphia skyscraper, with Norman Foster-designed tower [slideshow]
The British architect last week unveiled his scheme for the $1.2 billion, 59-story Comcast Innovation and Technology Center, planned adjacent to the Comcast Center.
| Jan 21, 2014
2013: The year of the super-tall skyscraper
Last year was the second-busiest ever in terms of 200-meter-plus building completions, with 73 towers, according to a report by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat.
