Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Feb 7, 2012
Kawneer and Traco combine portfolios
Portfolio includes curtain wall systems, windows, entrances and framing systems.
| Feb 7, 2012
Lubbers promoted to creative director at Wight & Co.
Lubbers has been instrumental in many recent high profile Wight projects, including the College of DuPage Student Resource Center, Seaton Computing Center, The Adler Planetarium Sky Theater transformation and UNO Charter Schools.
| Feb 7, 2012
Shepley Bulfinch opens San Francisco office
This expansion establishes a physical presence that builds on a portfolio of work for institutional clients on the West Coast, dating to the development of the original Stanford University campus in 1891
| Feb 7, 2012
Thornton Tomasetti opens new office in Denver
The firm, which now has 25 offices internationally, opened the new office to better serve current and potential clients in the western Central region and Mountain States.
| Feb 6, 2012
Slight increase in nonres construction spending expected in 2012, growth projected for 2013
Commercial sector expected to lead real estate recovery.
| Feb 6, 2012
FMI releases 2012 Construction Productivity Report
Downsizing has resulted in retaining the most experienced and best-trained personnel who are the most capable of working more efficiently and harder.
| Feb 6, 2012
Kirchhoff-Consigli begins Phase 2 renovations at FDR Presidential Library and Museum
EYP Architecture & Engineering is architect for the $35 million National Archives Administration project.
| Feb 6, 2012
Batson-Cook announces the appointment of Hall as president
Hall will manage and direct all aspects of the firm’s day-to-day operations. He will be based in Batson-Cook’s Atlanta office.
| Feb 6, 2012
Siemens gifts Worcester Polytechnic Institute $100,000 for fire protection lab renovation
Siemens support is earmarked for the school’s Fire Protection Engineering Lab, a facility that has been forwarding engineering and other advanced degrees, graduating fire protection engineers since 1979.
