Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Feb 1, 2012
New ways to work with wood
New products like cross-laminated timber are spurring interest in wood as a structural material.
| Feb 1, 2012
Blackney Hayes designs school for students with learning differences
The 63,500 sf building allows AIM to consolidate its previous two locations under one roof, with room to expand in the future.
| Feb 1, 2012
Two new research buildings dedicated at the University of South Carolina
The two buildings add 208,000 square feet of collaborative research space to the campus.
| Feb 1, 2012
List of Top 10 States for LEED Green Buildings released?
USGBC releases list of top U.S. states for LEED-certified projects in 2011.
| Feb 1, 2012
ULI and Greenprint Foundation create ULI Greenprint Center for Building Performance
Member-to-member information exchange measures energy use, carbon footprint of commercial portfolios.
| Feb 1, 2012
AEC mergers and acquisitions up in 2011, expected to surge in 2012
Morrissey Goodale tracked 171 domestic M&A deals, representing a 12.5% increase over 2010 and a return to levels not seen since 2007.
| Jan 31, 2012
AIA CONTINUING EDUCATION: Reroofing primer, in-depth advice from the experts
Earn 1.0 AIA/CES learning units by studying this article and successfully completing the online exam.
| Jan 31, 2012
28th Annual Reconstruction Awards: Modern day reconstruction plays out
A savvy Building Team reconstructs a Boston landmark into a multiuse masterpiece for Suffolk University.
| Jan 31, 2012
Chapman Construction/Design: ‘Sustainability is part of everything we do’
Chapman Construction/Design builds a working culture around sustainability—for its clients, and for its employees.
| Jan 31, 2012
Fusion Facilities: 8 reasons to consolidate multiple functions under one roof
‘Fusing’ multiple functions into a single building can make it greater than the sum of its parts. The first in a series on the design and construction of university facilities.
