Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Feb 9, 2023
Post-Covid Manhattan office market rebound gaining momentum
Office workers in Manhattan continue to return to their workplaces in sufficient numbers for many of their employers to maintain or expand their footprint in the city, according to a survey of more than 140 major Manhattan office employers conducted in January by The Partnership for New York City.
Giants 400 | Feb 9, 2023
New Giants 400 download: Get the complete at-a-glance 2022 Giants 400 rankings in Excel
See how your architecture, engineering, or construction firm stacks up against the nation's AEC Giants. For more than 45 years, the editors of Building Design+Construction have surveyed the largest AEC firms in the U.S./Canada to create the annual Giants 400 report. This year, a record 519 firms participated in the Giants 400 report. The final report includes 137 rankings across 25 building sectors and specialty categories.
University Buildings | Feb 8, 2023
STEM-focused Kettering University opens Stantec-designed Learning Commons
In Flint, Mich., Kettering University opened its new $63 million Learning Commons, designed by Stantec. The new facility will support collaboration, ideation, and digital technology for the STEM-focused higher learning institution.
Sustainability | Feb 8, 2023
A wind energy system—without the blades—can be placed on commercial building rooftops
Aeromine Technologies’ bladeless system captures and amplifies a building’s airflow like airfoils on a race car.
Codes and Standards | Feb 8, 2023
GSA releases draft of federal low embodied carbon material standards
The General Services Administration recently released a document that outlines standards for low embodied carbon materials and products to be used on federal construction projects.
University Buildings | Feb 7, 2023
Kansas City University's Center for Medical Education Innovation can adapt to changes in medical curriculum
The Center for Medical Education Innovation (CMEI) at Kansas City University was designed to adapt to changes in medical curriculum and pedagogy. The project program supported the mission of training leaders in osteopathic medicine with a state-of-the-art facility that leverages active-learning and simulation-based training.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 7, 2023
Multifamily housing rents flat in January, developers remain optimistic
Multifamily rents were flat in January 2023 as a strong jobs report indicated that fears of a significant economic recession may be overblown. U.S. asking rents averaged $1,701, unchanged from the prior month, according to the latest Yardi Matrix National Multifamily Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Reconstruction Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. building reconstruction and renovation sector
Gensler, Stantec, IPS, Alfa Tech, STO Building Group, and Turner Construction top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest reconstruction sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Transit Facility Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. transit facility sector
Walsh Group, Skanska USA, HDR, Perkins and Will, and AECOM top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest transit facility sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Telecommunications Facility Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. telecommunications facility sector
AECOM, Alfa Tech, Kraus-Anderson, and Stantec head BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest telecommunications facility sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
