Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Religious Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. religious facility construction sector
HOK, Parkhill, KPFF, Shawmut Design and Construction, and Wiss, Janney, Elstner head BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest religious facility sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Justice Facility Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. justice facility/public safety sector
Stantec, DLR Group, Turner Construction, STO Building Group, AECOM, and Dewberry top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest architecture, engineering, and construction firms for justice facility/public safety buildings work, including correctional facilities, fire stations, jails, police stations, and prisons, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Parking Structure Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. parking structure sector
Choate Parking Consultants, Walker Consultants, Kimley-Horn, PCL, and Balfour Beatty top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest parking structure sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Market Data | Feb 6, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending dips 0.5% in December 2022
National nonresidential construction spending decreased by 0.5% in December, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $943.5 billion for the month.
Giants 400 | Feb 3, 2023
Top Workplace/Interior Fitout Architecture, Engineering, and Construction Firms for 2022
Gensler, Interior Architects, AECOM, STO Building Group, and CBRE top the ranking of the nation's largest workplace/interior fitout architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 3, 2023
HUD unveils report to help multifamily housing developers overcome barriers to offsite construction
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, in partnership with the National Institute of Building Sciences and MOD X, has released the Offsite Construction for Housing: Research Roadmap, a strategic report that presents the key knowledge gaps and research needs to overcome the barriers and challenges to offsite construction.
Steel Buildings | Feb 3, 2023
Top 10 structural steel building projects for 2023
A Mies van der Rohe-designed art and architecture school at Indiana University and Morphosis Architects' Orange County Museum of Art in Costa Mesa, Calif., are among 10 projects to win IDEAS² Awards from the American Institute of Steel Construction.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 2, 2023
St. Louis’s first transit-oriented multifamily development opens in historic Skinker DeBaliviere neighborhood
St. Louis’s first major transit-oriented, multi-family development recently opened with 287 apartments available for rent. The $71 million Expo at Forest Park project includes a network of pathways to accommodate many modes of transportation including ride share, the region’s Metro Transit system, a trolley line, pedestrian traffic, automobiles, and bike traffic on the 7-mile St. Vincent Greenway Trail.
Giants 400 | Feb 2, 2023
2022 Convention Center Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. convention and conference facilities sector
Clark Group, EUA, KPFF, Populous, TVS, and Walter P Moore top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest convention and conference facilities architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 1, 2023
Step(1) housing: A new approach to sheltering unhoused people in Redwood City, Calif.
A novel solution to homelessness will open soon in Redwood City, Calif. The compact residential campus employs modular units to create individual sleeping units, most with private bathrooms. The 240 units of housing will be accompanied by shared services and community spaces. Instead of the congregate dorm-style shelters found in many U.S. cities, this approach gives each resident a private, lockable, conditioned sleeping space.