“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Jan 4, 2011
Product of the Week: Zinc cladding helps border crossing blend in with surroundings
Zinc panels provide natural-looking, durable cladding for an administrative building and toll canopies at the newly expanded Queenstown Plaza U.S.-Canada border crossing at the Niagara Gorge. Toronto’s Moriyama & Teshima Architects chose the zinc alloy panels for their ability to blend with the structures’ scenic surroundings, as well as for their low maintenance and sustainable qualities. The structures incorporate 14,000 sf of Rheinzink’s branded Angled Standing Seam and Reveal Panels in graphite gray.
| Jan 4, 2011
6 green building trends to watch in 2011
According to a report by New York-based JWT Intelligence, there are six key green building trends to watch in 2011, including: 3D printing, biomimicry, and more transparent and accurate green claims.
| Jan 4, 2011
LEED standards under fire in NYC
This year, for the first time, owners of 25,000 commercial properties in New York must report their buildings’ energy use to the city. However, LEED doesn’t measure energy use and costs, something a growing number of engineers, architects, and landlords insist must be done. Their concerns and a general blossoming of environmental awareness have spawned a host of rating systems that could test LEED’s dominance.
| Jan 4, 2011
LEED 2012: 10 changes you should know about
The USGBC is beginning its review and planning for the next version of LEED—LEED 2012. The draft version of LEED 2012 is currently in the first of at least two public comment periods, and it’s important to take a look at proposed changes to see the direction USGBC is taking, the plans they have for LEED, and—most importantly—how they affect you.
| Jan 4, 2011
California buildings: now even more efficient
New buildings in California must now be more sustainable under the state’s Green Building Standards Code, which took effect with the new year. CALGreen, the first statewide green building code in the country, requires new buildings to be more energy efficient, use less water, and emit fewer pollutants, among many other requirements. And they have the potential to affect LEED ratings.
| Jan 4, 2011
New Years resolutions for architects, urban planners, and real estate developers
Roger K. Lewis, an architect and a professor emeritus of architecture at the University of Maryland, writes in the Washington Post about New Years resolutions he proposes for anyone involved in influencing buildings and cities. Among his proposals: recycle and reuse aging or obsolete buildings instead of demolishing them; amend or eliminate out-of-date, obstructive, and overly complex zoning ordinances; and make all city and suburban streets safe for cyclists and pedestrians.
| Jan 4, 2011
An official bargain, White House loses $79 million in property value
One of the most famous office buildings in the world—and the official the residence of the President of the United States—is now worth only $251.6 million. At the top of the housing boom, the 132-room complex was valued at $331.5 million (still sounds like a bargain), according to Zillow, the online real estate marketplace. That reflects a decline in property value of about 24%.
| Jan 4, 2011
Luxury hotel planned for Palace of Versailles
Want to spend the night at the Palace of Versailles? The Hotel du Grand Controle, a 1680s mansion built on palace grounds for the king's treasurer and vacant since the French Revolution, will soon be turned into a luxury hotel. Versailles is partnering with Belgian hotel company Ivy International to restore the dilapidated estate into a 23-room luxury hotel. Guests can live like a king or queen for a while—and keep their heads.
| Jan 4, 2011
Grubb & Ellis predicts commercial real estate recovery
Grubb & Ellis Company, a leading real estate services and investment firm, released its 2011 Real Estate Forecast, which foresees the start of a slow recovery in the leasing market for all property types in the coming year.
